ZVRA — TLI Research (2026-09-24)

Summary

ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics) is a TLI coverage pick. Strong 5-wave bounce since $9 at the end of July, now pulling back in 3 waves — believed to be in subwave C. Watching for a test of support on the 0.5 Fib at $11; the 200 Day MA has aligned with the 0.618 Fib at $10.57, creating a confluence support level. A pullback to either support and holding, followed by consolidation, would complete Wave 2 and make ZVRA a buy again. 1.618 Fib target at $17.14.

TLI Analysis — Key Levels & Timeline

2026-09-24 — email #103716 — Coverage (Text)

Subject: $ZVRA Price check: 2026-09-24 — $11.15

$ZVRA is pulling back in 3 waves now after bouncing strong in 5 waves since $9 at the end of July. The pullback in September has been measured and controlled, offering no surprises. TLI believes we are in subwave C now and watching for a test of support on the 0.5 Fib next at $11. The 200 Day MA has aligned with the 0.618 Fib at $10.57, so this is now a confluence support level and typically behaves like a magnet. A pullback to either support level and holding, followed by consolidation, and ZVRA is considered a buy again and Wave 2 will be complete. A reversal to the upside next would be expected with the 1.618 Fib the target at $17.14 over the next few months.

2026-10-01 — email #104048 — Coverage Update (Text)

Subject: $ZVRA Type: Text-based coverage update.

• $ZVRA now testing confluence support level at $10.57 where the 0.618 Fib meets the 200 Day MA
• This is where bulls need to step in to defend this level
• If they fail, downside risk is the larger yellow support line at $9.70
• Must wait for support to confirm before making decisions
• If price holds above 200 Day MA, could get squeezed between MAs — typically results in a breakout

Price check: 2026-10-01 — $10.42 (-6.55%). Broke below $10.57 confluence support. Testing toward $9.70.

Position Context

• Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐ — Coverage / buy-on-confirmation
• Key levels: $11 (0.5 Fib), $10.57 (200 DMA + 0.618 Fib confluence)
• Role: Biotech, Wave 2 pullback → Wave 3 setup

Price Check

• 2026-09-24 — $11.15 (-1.55%) Live afternoon price update. Testing 0.5 Fib at $11. | 2026-10-01 — $10.42 (-6.55%). Broke below $10.57 confluence support. Testing toward $9.70.

2026-10-06 — email #104286 — WATCHLIST — Holding Above Confluence $9.80

Subject: $ZVRA - WATCHLIST - Type: Text-based WATCHLIST post with chart image. Key analysis: - Added $ZVRA to the watchlist — price holding above confluence between 50 WMA and yellow support line at $9.80 - Key level to hold for continuation Price check: 2026-10-06 — $9.42 (not available from yfinance). Holding above $9.80 confluence support area.