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Summary
NVO (Novo Nordisk) is TLI's TOP 10 / WATCHLIST pick — one of 5 core safe haven positions alongside Silver, SE, BABA, and UNH. GLP-1 leader (Ozempic, Wegovy) with strong fundamentals. Held in IRA.
TLI Analysis — Key Levels & Timeline
Coiling for Breakout (Sep 4, 2026 — email #102952)
- Price oscillating around the 50 Day MA, 200 Day MA, channel breakout level, and Buy Zone ($44-$48) since end of July
- "Price action is coiling before breaking out"
- Position added in middle of this zone at $46
- Bulls and bears identified the range; if $48 can be broken, expect next leg up
Still Below 50 WMA (Sep 2, 2026 — email #102827)
- Price staying below 50 WMA and trend top line, just above Buy Zone
- Last buy was at $46 — "comfortable to add there"
- Core thesis: buy fundamentally strong companies below their 200 WMA
- NVO's 200 WMA is at $83 — massive upside to MA if price recovers
Post-Earnings Analysis (Aug 5, 2026 — email #101714 — Video Transcript)
- Q2'26 Earnings: DOUBLE BEAT
- 2026 outlook raised
- GLP-1 pills had "best ever US launch"
- Stock dropped -8% after earnings — "Someone probably wants cheaper shares"
- Vojtech (analyst) reviewed the earnings in detail
- Despite strong results, short-term market reaction was negative, providing buying opportunity
Sep 11, 2026 (email #103234) — Watchlist Video: Adding After ABC Correction
- Vojtech video covering positions to add after confirming A, B, C corrections
- NVO was #1 requested — causing concerns among members
- Will analyze NVO chart in video to address concerns
- Part of a broader watchlist video alongside BABA, Silver, SE
- Price check: 2026-09-11 — $42.91 (-2.50%) — Dropped below Buy Zone $44-$48. Testing lower levels after Wave 2 at 0.5 Fib.
Sep 11, 2026 (email #103217) — TOP 10 — Textbook Wave 2
- NVO is presenting a textbook Wave 2 opportunity
- Price touching the 0.5 Fib — buy zone entrance
- "Opportunity many members wanted"
- Buy Zone $44-$48 remains active
- If 0.5 Fib holds, expect Wave 3 continuation
- Current price $44.01
Q2 Earnings Results (Aug 4, 2026 — email #101690)
- Slight double miss reported, but much to be optimistic about
- Sales and operating profit rose YoY
- Strong Wegovy and Ozempic sales
- Raised 2026 guidance range
- Disclosed DKK 6.3bn impairment
- Stock fell after results — typical buy-the-dip setup
- Novo repurchased 27M+ B shares through Aug 3 at avg DKK 278.35
Position Context
- Held in IRA as part of safe haven core
- Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐ — regular coverage, consistent TOP 10/20 mention
- Role: Safe haven in healthcare sector with GLP-1 moat
- Strategy: Accumulate in Buy Zone ($44-$48), expect breakout above $48
|- 2026-09-09 — $44.73 (-0.94%) $44.73 (-0.94%). Modest drop, holding near support.
|- 2026-09-10 — $44.56 (-1.33%) Still in Buy Zone $44-$48. New TOP 10 image post (#103178) today. Coiling pattern intact.
|- 2026-09-11 — $44.01 (-1.23%) Text Wave 2 at 0.5 Fib. Textbook buy zone entry. New email #103217.
Gaps edited
- No specific price target published in available text
- Multiple video/image posts without extractable text (email #101690 was image-based)
2026-10-01 — email #104054 — FULL THESIS (Text) new
Subject: $NVO - FULL THESIS
Type: Comprehensive full thesis post (text with charts).
- NVO valued at just $167B vs LLY $1.03T — over 6x larger market cap
- Forward P/E: LLY 25x vs NVO 11x. EV/Sales: LLY 14x vs NVO 3.5x. EV/EBITDA: LLY 26x vs NVO 8x
- DCF value of ~$68/share vs current ~$38
- Now a 4.7% forward dividend yield — getting paid to wait
- Beta of 0.34 — historically far less volatile than the market
- ~$7B cash on balance sheet, ~$24B annualized operating cash flow
- H1 net income increased from DKK55.5B to DKK69.5B. FCF DKK55.3B up from DKK38.4B
- On pace for ~DKK111B FCF this year vs consensus expecting DKK88B in 2028
- "Strong Buy. A safe haven play. A diversification play. A dividend play."
- TLI slashed FY26 guidance then raised to 0% to -6%. At top end, FY26 no worse than FY25 ($70 avg) vs $38 today
Price check: 2026-10-01 — $37.65 (-1.47%). Dumped further. Full thesis published defending the name.
Price Check edited
|- 2026-09-15 — $42.63 Live price update.
- 2026-09-08 (close) — $45.44 (-2.50% from Sep 4 close). Pulled back below $48 breakout target. Still in Buy Zone $44-$48. Coiling for breakout setup remains valid.
2026-09-14 — email #103320 new
Subject: $NVO - TOP 10 -
Price check: 2026-09-14 — $43.07
$NVO is looking okay in this morning's PM but we did see the price drop down to $43 on Friday which is right at the 0.5 Fib and in the Buy Zone.
2026-09-16 — email #103406: Wave 2 Pullback new
Sep 16, 2026 (email #103406) — TOP 10 — Textbook Wave 2 new
- I'm very happy with what we're seeing. We wanted to see a Wave 2 from $NVO and this is what we're getting.
- The textbook Wave 2 target is below the current level.
- Price is finding support at the bottom of the wedge.
- Price check: 2026-09-16 — $42.53 (-6.4% from $45.44). Buy Zone $44-$48.
- Thesis: accumulate into weakness for Wave 3 upside.
||- 2026-09-16 — $41.87 Live afternoon price update. Dropped further from $42.53 morning. Now below Buy Zone $44-$48. Wave 2 weakness — thesis intact for accumulation.
2026-09-18 — email #103496 — TOP 10 (Image-based) new
Subject: $NVO - TOP 10 -
Type: Image-based chart post.
Text: Textbook Wave 2 pullback down the Fib. No changes to the chart or commentary. Exactly what we wanted to see.
Price check: 2026-09-18 — $43.19 (+3.15%). Recovering from $41.87 low. Wave 2 accumulation zone.
Price check: 2026-09-18 afternoon close — $43.34 (+0.35%). Stable just above $43. Wave 2 accumulation zone intact. Buy Zone $44-$48 — approaching from below.
||- 2026-09-21 — $39.67 — Dropped further below Buy Zone $44-$48. Extended Wave 2 weakness. 0.5 Fib at $44 support now overhead resistance near term.
2026-09-23 — email #103697 — Is It Going To $0? Video new
Subject: $NVO - Is It Going To $0? - Video
Type: Video post with text intro.
- Vojtech video addressing "a lot of chatter around $NVO lately."
- Hot mic incident with management raised concerns — management caught discussing sensitive information.
- Video analysis of NVO's situation and whether the selloff is justified.
- Price check: 2026-09-23 — $38.26 (-3.5% from $39.67). Sharp drop below Buy Zone. Video addresses concerns about the trajectory.
2026-09-23 — email #103703 — TOP 10 (Text) new
Subject: $NVO - TOP 10 -
Type: Text-based TOP 10 post.
- $NVO flushed down for a test of its 200 MONTHLY MA today.
- Management got caught with a hot mic this week and concerned the market.
- Retail capitulation at the 200 Monthly MA test.
- Price check: 2026-09-23 — $38.26. Testing 200 Monthly MA. The flush continues with retail capitulation at this key level.
||- 2026-09-24 — $38.17 — Pre-market Sep 24 — $38.17 (Sep 23 close). Testing 200 Monthly MA. Hot mic management incident fallout. Retail capitulation at key level. Sep 23 saw video + TOP 10 text posts.
Price check: 2026-09-29 — $38.21 (-1.29%). Flushed to test 200 Monthly MA level.
| 2026-10-01 — $37.65 (-1.47%). Dumped further. Full thesis published by TLI — DCF $68 vs $38. 4.7% div yield. On pace for ~DKK111B FCF.
| 2026-10-02 (afternoon) — $37.23 Live afternoon price update.
| 2026-10-06 (afternoon) — $37.13 Live afternoon price update.
|| 2026-10-07 (pre-market) — $37.53 Live pre-market price update.
2026-10-07 — email #104343 — TOP 10 — LONG TERM PROJECTION (Image-based)
Subject: $NVO - TOP 10 - LONG TERM PROJECTION -
Type: Image-based TOP 10 chart post. No extractable text.
Price check: 2026-10-07 — $38.14 (-0.8%). TOP 10 LONG TERM PROJECTION image post. 200 Monthly MA test ongoing. Retail capitulation. Full thesis published Oct 1 (DCF $68).