Sources
The Long Investor (Patreon) — synthesized from recent TOP 20 emails
TLI Market View — Sep 10, 2026
2026-09-10T00:00:00Z
2026-09-10T00:00:00Z
tli
research
market-outlook
macro
summary
TLI Market View — Week of Sep 7-11, 2026
A synthesized macro view and stock-by-stock breakdown drawn from TLI's most recent TOP 20, TOP 10, and WATCHLIST emails.
Macro Picture: Approaching Inflection
The Big Catalyst — CPI Friday
This week is dominated by one data point: CPI on Friday. This is the last piece of economic data the Fed will use before making its next rate decision. TLI's framework:
| CPI Outcome | Expected Market Reaction |
|---|---|
| Cool ✅ | Fed may delay rate hikes → QQQ pushes higher, bull case continues |
| In line 🟡 | The dilemma: will Fed cut anyway for political reasons (Mid Terms)? |
| Hot ❌ | Fed under pressure to raise → weakness begins |
The core conversation TLI flags: "what happens behind closed doors between Trump and Warsh." This is as much political as economic.
Earnings Season Wrap
Earnings season is effectively over (NVDA was the last major report). The main takeaway: margins took a hit as AI Capex continues to be high, allowing mega-caps to pull back to their 200 WMAs. TLI views these retests as opportunities, not disasters — META and GOOGL retests are specifically called out as "opportunities we will not be ignoring."
TLI's Bottom Line
"I still believe the market has not topped." — The tone is watchful, not defensive. They're not calling for cash-raising or mass exits. The key is positioning for the CPI read and the Fed decision that follows.
Stock-by-Stock Breakdown
🟢 Active Buys / Strong Positions
| Ticker | Price | Call | Key Levels | Article |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZETA | $30.60 | TOP 10 — Simplest Hold | Wave 3 intact, 1.618 Fib magnet. Blue line $26.50 support. Added $12-13 May 2025. Showing relative strength even on red market days. | ZETA Article |
| AMD | ~$498 | Bull Case Entered | Closed +5%, back above 50 DMA $498. Wave 5 target 2.618 Fib at $683. No changes needed. | AMD Article |
| PFE | $27+ | TOP 10 SAFE HAVEN | Wave 3, broke 12-month range at $27, now retesting breakout. Defensive pharma. | PFE Article |
| MU | ~$1,000 | Bullish Wedge Breakout | Broke wedge + 50 DMA. Run to amber 0.618 Fib at $1,055. Retest at $933 expected — if holds, bulls add. Risk: Wave C to $656. | MU Article |
| IREN | ~$47 | 50 WMA Test | Bouncing from $32 support (channel + 0.618 Fib). Series of higher highs/lows. If 50 WMA flips → target $67.50. | IREN Article |
🟡 Buy Zones Triggered / Add Zones
| Ticker | Buy Zone | Trigger | Why | Article |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | Below $360 | 🎯 0.38 Fib BROKEN — Buy Zone just triggered | Waited since July for this pullback. 0.38 Fib broke → officially in Buy Zone. Dividend 3%+. Mega-cap safe haven. | UNH Article |
| APP | $291 (0.618 Fib) | 🆕 Fresh call — "one for members to consider" | 3-wave ABC pullback complete to 0.618 Fib Buy Zone. 200 WMA at $236 below. Deep dive available at start of Sep. | (New — image-based) |
| KHC | $24.22 (50 WMA) | Testing Buy Zone | 0.5-0.618 Fib Buy Zone. 50 WMA at $24.22. Safe haven +6.4% dividend. Wave 3 target $35. | KHC Article |
| NFLX | $76 (0.38 Fib) | Higher low attempt | Testing 0.38 Fib + 50 DMA confluence. Low risk entry for Wave 3 continuation. Target $104. | NFLX Article |
| ADUR | $13.15 (confluence) | 200 DMA + Wedge support test | If holds → Wave 3 target $26. | ADUR Article |
🟢 Running, Don't Chase — Wait for Pullback
| Ticker | Level | Why Wait | Article |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $453+ | Pullback needed after aggressive move. Buy Zone on 0.5 Fib at $453. | MSFT Article |
| PLTR | $171+ | Above 1.618 Fib. Hovering. Don't chase — wait for Wave 4 pullback. | PLTR Article |
| SHOP | ~$145 | Earnings smashed +28%. Wait for retest $135-136. Wave 5 target $227. | SHOP Article |
| SNOW | ~$395 | DOUBLE BEAT earnings. Nearly at 1.618 Fib. Don't chase — Wave 4 pullback expected. | SNOW Article |
| WYFI | $19.54 | 🚨 Support breached. Retesting 200 DMA at $21.55. Recovery mode — hold, don't add. | WYFI Article |
🔴 Avoid / Weak
| Ticker | Why | Article |
|---|---|---|
| NKE / LULU / ONON | Apparel sector deep below 200 WMAs. "Going from bad to worse." Removed from S&P 100. | NKE Article |
| META | Q2 earnings "abysmal" — FCF -93% QoQ. Identity crisis. Recent Deep Dive is image-only. | META Article |
| VST | Still in ABC correction. 50 WMA resistance since Jan. Lower highs/lows. | VST Article |
| OPEN | Testing 200 WMA at $3.12 for support. High risk — waiting for consolidation. | OPEN Article |
If You Had Cash Right Now
Highest conviction fresh buys (in order):
1. $UNH — Buy Zone just triggered. 0.38 Fib broke. Waited since July. 3%+ dividend. Mega-cap safe haven. Below $360.
2. $APP ($291) — New call — "one for members to consider." ABC pullback complete to 0.618 Fib Buy Zone. Deep dive available.
3. $ZETA ($30.60) — Simplest hold, best performer. Showing relative strength even on red days. Buy any pullback to $26.50.
4. $AMD (~$498) — Bull Case activated. Above 50 DMA. W5 target $683.
5. $KHC ($24.22) — Safe haven +6.4% dividend. Buy zone entry. Wave 3 target $35.
Safe Havens for Uncertainty
| Ticker | Yield / Thesis | Article |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | 3%+ dividend, healthcare backbone | Link |
| PFE | Wave 3 pharma, defensive | Link |
| KHC | +6.4% dividend, consumer staples | Link |
| Silver | Commodity safe haven, W5 target $160 | (Signal log) |
Key Indicators to Watch
| Indicator | What TLI Says |
|---|---|
| CPI Friday | Cool = buy tech. Hot = prepare for weakness. |
| QQQ $731 | Flipping this to support = bull case confirmed |
| QQQ 50 DMA $711 | Must hold above this for bull case |
| NVDA | "Market needs NVDA to move higher — without it, it's very difficult" |
| VIX | Not discussed in recent text — monitor |
Verdict
🟡 Cautiously bullish. The market hasn't topped. CPI Friday is the pivot. If it's cool, the wedge breakouts in QQQ, AMD, MU, and the buy zones in UNH, APP, KHC become the plays. If it's hot, the safe havens (UNH, PFE, KHC, Silver) protect while tech resets.
TLI's own highest-conviction BUY right now: $UNH below $360 (just triggered) and $APP at $291 (fresh call).
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026. All prices and levels from TLI's most recent TOP 20 and TOP 10 emails. This is a synthesis, not individual advice.