Summary
LVMHF (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) — TLI video coverage by Vojtech. Long-term chart shows a complex correction heading to the 200-month moving average; the golden pocket (0.618/0.65 Fib) aligns with the 200-month MA, which TLI labels as the Buy Zone — a great defensive, long-term position with a 3.3% dividend. RSI on daily already oversold (28). TLI will set an alert and definitely consider a position.
TLI Analysis — Key Levels & Timeline
2026-09-24 — email #103726 — Video (Transcript)
Subject: $LVMHF - Video -
Price check: 2026-09-24 — $452.78
Today's video covers $LVMHF. At first look this may look like a downtrend, but the overlapping waves distinguish a correction from a trend — this is most likely a complex correction (A-B-C). Long-term: approaching the 200-month moving average (seen with ADBE, NVO recently). The 200-month MA is not to be ignored as long as the brand is fundamentally healthy. The business remains healthy; it depends on whether you believe it returns to growth. TLI will definitely consider a position because people will always lean towards luxury goods.
Wave count on the reset: wave 3 reached 1.272 (not 1.618) and wave 5 reached 1.618 — a valid count (wave 3 not the shortest). Extended wave 1 from the Great Financial Crisis recovery. Pulling back to 0.618 from all-time bottom to all-time high — a significant correction. RSI: monthly 34, weekly 30.47, daily 28 (already oversold on daily). The 0.618/0.65 golden pocket aligns with the 200-month MA — inside this range, a great area to buy for the long term. Generous 3.3% dividend, may increase when reaching this spot. Nice controlled movement; slow and steady upside expected (leading diagonal), it will take years. A great defensive position for your portfolio. TLI will set an alert.
Prior (Sep 11, 2026 — email #103239) — New Coverage
Subject: $LVMHF - New Coverage
Price check: 2026-09-11 — Rejected at 50 WMA, dropped below 0.5 Fib $525. $413 at 0.618 Fib + 200 monthly MA is attractive.
Position Context
- Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐ — Coverage, defensive long-term candidate
- Key levels: Buy Zone ~0.618/0.65 Fib + 200-month MA; dividend 3.3%
- Role: Luxury defensive, complex correction completion
Price Check
- 2026-09-24 — $452.78 (+0.06%) Live afternoon price update. Approaching 200-month MA buy zone.
2026-09-29 — email #103910 — Monitoring Confluence at $414
Subject: $LVMHF
Type: Text-based coverage post.
Key analysis:
- Flush down to a very strong confluence level has caught TLI's attention
- Confluence: 200 Monthly MA + Cycle 0.618 Fib + channel trend support line → all converging at $414
- One of Europe's largest companies, luxury conglomerate — squeezed by middle/working class conditions
- When cycle reverses, $LVMHF will benefit greatly
- $NKE, $LULU, $ONON, $LVMHF all struggled with inflation — each will survive and thrive again
- Not a buy right now — TLI will monitor if confluence level is tested and holds
|**Price check: 2026-09-29 pre-market — $455.97 (-0.21%). Still above $414 confluence. Monitoring for test of 200 Monthly MA.
2026-10-09 — email #104438 — Coverage — Touching 200 Monthly MA + 0.618 Fib $414 Confluence
Subject: $LVMHF
Type: Text-based coverage post.
Key analysis:
- $LVMHF within touching distance of testing a very strong Wave 2 confluence at the 200 MONTHLY MA + 0.618 Fib at $414
- One of the largest and most powerful companies in Europe
- Was at $1000 high in 2023; has declined in controlled trend for 3 years
- $LVMHF is a signal that consumers are being cautious and not buying luxury items
Price check: 2026-10-09 — pre-market. Approaching $414 confluence (200 Monthly MA + 0.618 Fib). Wave 2 support zone.