US 10YR — TLI Macro Research (2026-09-24)

Summary

US 10-Year Treasury yield — TLI macro update. The breakout of the 'bullish' wedge (shared for 2 years) is causing problems for the US market. Inflation has likely been the biggest driver, with oil prices the strongest culprit. If the 10 YR continues to rise, the FED could increase rates by +0.5% to cool fears — a catch-22 that will hurt either way. Next technical target: the 1.618 Fib at 5.8%, then a pullback expected.

TLI Analysis — Key Levels & Timeline

2026-09-24 — email #103720 — Macro (Text)

Subject: US 10YR Price check: 2026-09-24 — 5.16% (+0.9%)

This is what's causing all the problems now. The same chart shared for 2 years: TLI knew a breakout of the 'bullish' wedge would cause problems for Trump and the US, and if it wasn't controlled it would run — and it has now. The US has not been focusing on the 10YR. Inflation has likely been the biggest driver of the climb — ignored all year by the administration. Oil prices have been the strongest culprit, with the unjust war the problem. Now the US is in a situation where it is damaging its own market. If the 10 YR continues to rise, the FED could become aggressive and increase rates by +0.5% to cool the fear of inflation — this will help the 10 YR come down and ease US payments but will almost certainly hurt the market. It's a catch-22; both outcomes cause issues. How high can the 10 YR go? The 1.618 Fib at 5.8% is the obvious target next, then a pullback expected. A very clear technical chart that has guided TLI for some time.

Position Context

• Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐ — Macro guide
• Key levels: 5.8% (1.618 Fib target), then pullback expected
• Role: Market regime / risk gauge; FED response risk

Price Check

• 2026-09-24 — 5.16% (+0.9%) Live afternoon update. Rising toward 1.618 Fib at 5.8%.

2026-10-01 — email #104016 — Parabolic Move Higher, No Short-Term Solution

Subject: US 10 YR Type: Text-based macro post. - The US 10 YR continues its parabolic move higher - Why is the market turning its back on Bonds? Too much supply (Washington issuing enormous debt), inflation risk, higher-for-longer rates (now Fed raising), rising term premium, competition for capital - The market will buy US debt — the problem is right now it wants 5%+ to do it - No short-term solution; the government seems reluctant to do anything, pouring fuel on the fire with Oil prices rising Price check: 2026-10-02 — US 10YR yield high; market wants 5%+ to buy US debt. Parabolic move. No short-term solution.