new section
edited section
· markers reflect the latest update
Summary
ADUR (Aduro) is a TLI WATCHLIST pick - star star star star star conviction. Price retraced to test confluence of wedge bottom and 200 Day MA around $13. If this holds, next: 50 Day MA at $14.89, then breakout above wedge at $16.40.
TLI Analysis — Key Levels & Timeline
Latest Update (Sep 9, 2026 — email #103140)
- $ADUR testing the confluence of 200 Day MA and wedge support at exactly $13.15
- Focus is holding above $13.15 to challenge 50 Day MA at $14.82 from below
- If price breaks above 50 DMA → next target is wedge breakout level at $16
- Break above $16 → move to Bull Case just under $18
- Wave 3 target remains at 1.618 Fib at $26
- No changes to the chart — focus is holding confluence support at $13.15
Sep 3, 2026 — email #102823
- Liking what is seen from ADUR
- Price retraced to test confluence of wedge bottom + 200 Day MA at ~$13
- This level needs to hold for support
- If it holds: next move higher to 50 Day MA at $14.89 - flip this to support
- From there: breakout above wedge at $16.40 and beyond
- 100 shares in Robinhood + ADUR $20C and $17.50C options positions
Sep 11, 2026 (email #103227) — Support Holding at $13.25 — Text
- ADUR feeling pressure like many positions this week
- Support not lost — PM brought price to $13.25, which is above the 200 Day MA and bullish wedge support
- If this level holds → structure remains intact for Wave 3
- If 200 DMA is lost → could still be in Wave 2 with a lower low below $12 July low
- Still would be in impulse count but Wave 3 delayed
- \"This makes zero difference to me or my holding — I will not touch a single share\"
- Price check: 2026-09-11 — $13.06 (+0.73%) — Above 200 DMA + wedge support, holding
TLI Analysis
Sep 9, 2026 (email #103140) — 200 DMA + Wedge Confluence Test
- Testing 200 Day MA + wedge support confluence at $13.15
- Focus: holding above this level to the upside
- If holds, expect move toward top of range
Position Context
- Conviction: star star star star star - Active coverage
- 100 shares in Robinhood
- Options: 3x $20C Dec 2026 (-50%), 3x $17.50C Dec 2026 (-44%)
- Key levels: $13 support, $14.89 (50 DMA), $16.40 (wedge breakout)
Price Check edited
|- 2026-09-15 — $12.56 Live price update.
|- 2026-09-11 — $12.97 Live price update.
- 2026-09-09 — $13.34 (-0.74%) Holding at $13.34 (-0.74%). Testing wedge/200DMA support at $13.15 — just above it.
|- 2026-09-08 (close) — $13.57 (-0.07% from Sep 4 close). Testing wedge bottom + 200 DMA support at ~$13. Holding. Next move higher to 50 DMA $14.89 if support holds.
|- 2026-09-14 (close) — $12.91 (+0.08%) — Holding above 200 DMA + wedge support at $13.15. Near flat.
2026-09-16 — email #103363: Still Bullish, Subwave 2 new
Sep 15, 2026 (email #103363) — Still Bullish new
- Nothing has changed here. $ADUR is still a position I am very bullish on.
- We are seeing a Subwave 2 of Wave 3.
- Focus here is holding confluence support.
- Price check: 2026-09-16 — $12.49 (-0.6%). 200 DMA + wedge support ~$13.
||- 2026-09-21 — $12.66 — Slight pullback from recent bounce. Still near wedge/200DMA support confluence at ~$13. Options risk noted.
2026-09-23 — email #103692: Still Bullish, Wedge Consolidation new
Subject: $ADUR
Type: Text-based chart post.
- "Nobody should be concerned here."
- A bullish wedge has formed since price action has been consolidating in this Wave 2 since June.
- Price check: 2026-09-23 — $12.81 (-0.3%). Still near wedge/200DMA support confluence at ~$13. Wave 2 consolidation continuing.
| - 2026-09-23 — $12.81 Live price update.
|||- 2026-09-24 — $12.68 — Pre-market Sep 24 — $12.68 (Sep 23 close). Near wedge/200DMA support confluence at ~$13. Wave 2 consolidation continuing. Sep 23 text post #103692 — nobody should be concerned.
2026-09-25 — email #103747 — Holding 0.618 Fib + Bullish Wedge new
Subject: $ADUR
Type: Text-based chart post.
- $ADUR looks set to finish another week holding above the 0.618 Fib and the bullish wedge as consolidation continues
- Management issuing new market updates at a high rate — clearly focused on executing
- Typically when management is this hungry, Heero gets even more bullish
- Recognised this after first meeting with ADUR management — started adding at $3.85
- Price action is protected here in the wedge during any potential market weakness
- Last year during 5 months of seasonal weakness, price consolidated and never lost its structure
Price check: 2026-09-25 — $12.56 (-0.95%). Holding above 0.618 Fib and wedge. Management executing. Consolidation range intact.
2026-09-30 — email #103967 — Coverage (Image-based) new
Subject: $ADUR
Type: Image-based chart post. No extractable text.
Price check: 2026-10-01 — $12.49. Wedge consolidation continues. Holding above 0.618 Fib and wedge support.
Price check: 2026-09-29 — $12.11 (-1.58%). Holding 0.618 Fib + wedge support.
| 2026-10-02 (afternoon) — $12.58 Live afternoon price update.
2026-10-06 — email #104278 — Coverage — Bulls Battling at $12 Level
Subject: $ADUR
Type: Text-based coverage post with chart image.
Key analysis:
- $ADUR bulls still battling at the $12 level but still have work to change the trend
- 0.618 Fib at $12.50 is the key level to monitor
- Price action continues in wedge consolidation
Price check: 2026-10-06 — $12.15. Battling $12 level. 0.618 Fib $12.50 key. Wedge consolidation continues.
| 2026-10-06 (afternoon) — $11.97 Live afternoon price update.
|| 2026-10-07 (pre-market) — $11.77 Live pre-market price update.
2026-10-08 — email #104389 — Reached 0.78 Fib $10.97, Structure Intact
Subject: $ADUR
Type: Text-based coverage post.
Key analysis:
- $ADUR reached down to the 0.78 Fib at $10.97 this week as market pressure continues
- Overall structure: consolidation range $9.40 to $18 since Sep '25
- Those accumulating around $12 over 12 months should be happy with their average
- Group owns a large percentage of $ADUR — will not trim here as long as company continues to execute on schedule
- I have personally done an enormous amount of DD — this is a conviction hold
Price check: 2026-10-08 — $11.145 (Oct 7 close). Approaching 0.78 Fib at $10.97. Range bottom $9.40. Conviction hold — no trimming.