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Portfolio Thesis Tracker
Last updated: 2026-09-03 18:00 UTC (afternoon session)
Strategy (Refined 8/7)
- Cash buffer ($17.8K + incoming divs) covers ~6mo medical expenses — no forced selling
- Keep winners (VV/VTV + DH core) through everything — a 20% drawdown is acceptable, sell later if needed
- TLI names → run or cut based on thesis triggers. Let the breakout happen or cut the breakdown.
- Option-income → collect divs, exit opportunistically, NOT forced. Pivot to DH when appropriate.
- Mid-September is a review date, not a forced exit. Assess then.
⚡ TLI Impulse Names — Run, Fade, or Cut
| Ticker |
Where |
Price |
1mo Range |
Cost Basis |
Unrealized |
Thesis |
Trigger |
|
JD |
IRA+RH |
$27.76 |
$26.46–$33.22 |
~$14,000 (IRA, 1,000 sh) |
~-$900 |
TLI TOP 10. Sold 300 shares @ $32.84 on Aug 5 (trimmed from 1,300 → 1,000). Chinese e-com value play. |
|
WYFI |
IRA+RH |
$18.61 |
$20.37–$40.75 |
RH: 175 sh @ $26.44 avg + IRA: 100 sh @ $26.08 |
~-$200 |
TLI Wave 2 shakeout. +7.48% bounce to $18.61 (biggest gain since breach). Still below $20 cut. Wave 3 target $79. |
|
ONDS |
IRA+RH |
$7.66 |
$6.22–$9.20 |
~$1,873 (IRA) |
-$375 |
TLI WATCHLIST. Recovering: +8.8% from $7.04 low. 50 WMA $9 breached but cut buffer at 27.7%. |
|
SOFI |
IRA |
$18.64 |
$14.88–$19.74 |
~$1,105 |
+$37 |
TLI recurring. +4.43% gain. |
|
NVO |
IRA |
$47.26 |
$43.68–$52.12 |
~$1,245 |
+$167 |
TLI Top 10. +1.05% gain. Nearing $52 PT. |
|
BABA |
RH |
$111.52 |
$97.39–$130.99 |
TBD (shares) |
TBD |
TLI TOP 20. Only 1.38% above $110 cut. New TLI: #102878 + #102897 today. |
|
ASTS |
RH |
$62.11 |
$52.80–$80.09 |
TBD |
TBD |
TLI WATCHLIST. Three TLI emails in 24h. Final buy @ $57.30 now +8.4% ITM. |
|
ADUR |
RH |
$13.79 |
$11.81–$16.59 |
100 sh @ $15.50 |
+$10 |
TLI WATCHLIST. 16.9% above $11.80 support. Stable. |
|
SIDU |
RH |
$2.12 |
$1.66–$2.50 |
TBD |
TBD |
TLI Deep Dive. Small cap. Flat. |
|
BMNR |
RH |
$26.13 |
$14.10–$18.71 |
TBD |
TBD |
TLI since Oct 2025. +13.29% RALLY! 86.6% above $14 cut. |
💰 Option-Income Names — Collect Divs, Exit Opportunistically (NOT forced)
| Ticker |
Where |
Price |
1mo Range |
Cost Basis |
Current Unrealized |
Divs Collected (trak) |
Status |
| YMAG |
IRA |
$11.48 |
$10.64–$11.65 |
~$9,634 |
-$4,009 |
~$2,959 |
Near 1mo top. Consolidating. Room to run. |
| MSTY |
IRA |
$12.53 |
$11.54–$13.16 |
~$5,972 |
-$5,477 |
~$1,481 |
Near lows but flat. Worst NAV decay. Still paying. |
| ULTY |
IRA |
$26.87 |
$25.02–$27.62 |
~$7,519 |
-$4,245 |
~$3,588 |
Upper half of range. Net loss only -$657 — best of trio. |
| HOOW |
IRA |
$23.46 |
$21.25–$32.51 |
~$9,959 |
-$6,644 |
~$4,638 |
Was at $32.51, pulled back. Net -$2K. Room if HOOD rallies. |
| TSLP |
IRA |
$13.55 |
$12.62–$18.19 |
~$9,401 |
-$4,013 |
~$2,088 |
Near lows. TSLA correlation. Cut if < $12. |
| AMDW |
IRA |
$86.70 |
$72.33–$104.37 |
~$5,325 |
+$3,325 |
~$4,247 |
Bouncing from $72 low. +$7.5K total return — best. |
| GOOW |
IRA |
$65.61 |
$56.50–$71.11 |
~$4,715 |
+$1,193 |
~$2,374 |
Mid-range. +$3.6K total. Strong. |
| AAPW |
IRA |
$39.40 |
$37.44–$44.39 |
~$4,944 |
+$149 |
~$1,428 |
Near lows. Net +$1.6K total. Stable. |
| AVGW |
IRA |
$42.92 |
$35.41–$43.60 |
~$4,814 |
-$1,147 |
~$2,319 |
Near 1mo high! Net +$1.2K total. Running. |
| TSLW |
IRA |
$16.27 |
$14.97–$22.73 |
~$4,908 |
-$2,497 |
TBD |
Mid-range. TSLA play. |
| COIW |
IRA |
$7.43 |
$7.07–$9.67 |
~$4,236 |
-$3,479 |
~$1,577 |
At 1mo floor. Cut if < $7. |
| YETH |
IRA |
$8.97 |
$7.91–$9.02 |
~$4,418 |
-$3,536 |
~$1,017 |
Near 1mo high! Recovering. |
| SPYT |
IRA |
$17.48 |
$16.64–$17.61 |
~$7,564 |
-$644 |
~$1,456 |
Near top. Stable. |
| SVOL |
IRA |
$15.94 |
$15.39–$16.04 |
~$6,147 |
-$1,641 |
~$1,083 |
Near top. Stable. |
| TSPY |
IRA |
$25.64 |
$24.45–$25.90 |
~$1,501 |
+$21 |
~$197 |
Stable +1%. Tiny. |
USOI — DH pick, see below.
🏦 DH Core Names — KEEPERS
| Ticker |
Price |
1mo Range |
Yield (DH) |
Status |
Move |
| AMZA |
$48.91 |
$46.40–$49.75 |
8.4% |
Near 1mo high. +178% total return. DH's #1 recession-proof pick. |
HOLD — keep through everything |
| PFFA |
$20.75 |
$20.38–$20.96 |
10.1% |
Stable, near top. |
HOLD |
| STWD |
$15.93 |
$15.51–$17.19 |
11.8% |
Near lows. DH says buy under $19. |
HOLD — accumulate if <$16 |
| HTGC |
$17.05 |
$15.59–$17.18 |
10.0% |
Near top. Bouncing +2.16%. |
HOLD |
| ICAP |
$28.66 |
$27.53–$29.44 |
10.7% |
Mid-range. Divs +25% YoY. |
HOLD |
| KQQQ |
$29.35 |
$27.19–$29.82 |
17.5% |
Near top. DH variable div. |
HOLD |
| QQQI |
$54.75 |
$50.96–$55.77 |
N/A |
Near top. DH replaced w/ QVOL. |
HOLD or swap to QVOL — not urgent |
| USOI |
$44.96 |
$40.93–$46.04 |
54% |
Near top. Oil covered call. DH pick (Jul 2026). |
HOLD |
| MSIF |
$11.80 |
$10.69–$11.89 |
12.5% |
Near top. +2.88%. |
HOLD |
| CIM+B |
$24.10 |
$23.26–$24.20 |
~11.4% |
Chimera Preferred B, fixed→floating. +$1,841 gain. |
HOLD — collect coupon |
| NLY |
$22.66 |
$22.03–$23.48 |
N/A |
Not DH. Mid-range. |
HOLD — not forced to sell |
| PDI |
$16.06 |
$15.82–$16.59 |
N/A |
Mid-range. Bond CEF. |
HOLD — not forced |
| PTY |
$11.83 |
$11.60–$12.03 |
N/A |
Mid-range. Bond CEF. |
HOLD — not forced |
| UNH |
$403.97 |
$397.80–$461.62 |
N/A |
Near lows. |
HOLD — not forced |
🧭 Ballast — KEEP (20% drawdown is acceptable)
| Ticker |
Price |
1mo Range |
Cost |
Gain |
Move |
| VV |
TBD |
TBD |
$4,876 |
+$10,967 (+228%) |
HOLD — can sell later if cash needed |
| VTV |
TBD |
TBD |
$7,144 |
+$7,671 (+111%) |
HOLD — can sell later if cash needed |
🎯 TLI Buy Zone Watchlist (names in/near buy zones, not yet held)
| Ticker |
Price |
Buy Zone |
Status vs Zone |
TLI Thesis |
Action |
| OSCR |
— |
SOLD |
Sold to cover margin. Was on watchlist buy zone < $25.85. |
CLOSED |
|
| SEZL |
$121.51 |
$105–$122 |
IN ZONE (crashed -32% today) |
3-wave pullback to buy zone. Was $195 high. |
🟢 IN ZONE — low-risk entry |
| DKNG |
$22.33 |
Within buy zone |
IN ZONE (down 3% post-earnings) |
Earnings drop, still in bullish wedge. |
🟢 IN ZONE |
| CCXI |
$16.47 |
$13.72 (0.618 Fib) |
Above zone, Wave 2 done |
Breakaway to $19, Wave 3 target $28. |
🟡 Wait for $13.72 or breakout |
| EL |
$86.97 |
$64 (0.78 Fib) |
Above zone, running |
Bounced from $64, challenging 50 WMA $91. |
🟡 Watch $91 break |
| IREN |
$37.51 |
$32 (0.618 Fib) |
Above zone |
Focus $48 MA confluence, breakout to $68. |
🟡 Wait for $48 break |
| CIFR |
$17.05 |
$25.75 (bull line) |
Below resistance, harsh drop |
12-month consolidation, must flip $25.75. Wedge breakout since June. |
🟢 BOUGHT — 1,000 sh @ $13.18 (Oct 8) |
| CLSK |
$12.18 |
$14.90 (bull/bear line) |
Below line |
Consolidating since 2024. Reward for resilience. |
🟡 Watch $14.90 flip |
| NVDA |
$221.50 |
$190 (50 WMA) |
Broke out $218→$228 zone |
Holding 50 WMA, breakout @ $218, Wave 5 bullish. |
🟢 BROKE OUT |
| SHOP |
$151.08 |
$135–136 (retest) |
Above, don't chase |
Q2 earnings +28%, wait for retest. |
🟡 Wait for $135-136 |
| SPOT |
$483.35 |
< $428 (0.618 Fib) |
Above zone |
Below $428 = buy. |
🟡 Wait for pullback |
| ONTO |
$301.01 |
N/A (running) |
Running (+12% today) |
Double beat. Was $106→$380 last summer. |
🟢 Running, don't chase |
| DCTH |
$15.92 |
$10 (added) |
Running |
Wave 1 of Primary Wave 3. Added @ $10, now $15.80. |
🟢 Running |
| SILVER (SLV) |
— |
$53 (0.618 Fib) |
— |
Safe haven. $61→$66→Wave 5 $160. |
🟡 Watch $53 |
Closed Positions
| Ticker |
Exit |
Proceeds |
| BULL |
Sold 8/4 @ $7.39 (200 sh) |
+$1,478 |
| PRT |
Sold 8/4 @ $2.14 (1,281 sh) |
+$2,741 |
📊 Cash & Dividends Tracker
| Metric |
Value |
| Current IRA Cash |
~$17,763 (covers ~6mo medical expenses) |
| Monthly Div Run Rate |
~$4,000/mo (IRA + RH combined) |
| Est. 6mo Medical Expense Coverage |
✅ Covered by cash + incoming divs |
| Strategy |
No forced selling. Cash buffer removes the gun-to-head trades. |
Gaps