ASTS — Research (2026-09-05)

2026-09-05T06:48:00Z 2026-10-09T18:00:00Z asts tli research satellite
What changed in the latest update +68 −1
@@ -5 +5 @@ created: '2026-09-05T06:48:00Z' @@ -10,0 +11,2 @@ sources: + - email://103445 + - email://103497 @@ -12,0 +15,3 @@ sources: + - email://103445 + - email://103639 + - email://103675 @@ -74,0 +80,6 @@ ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is TLI's most-covered position — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ convic + ### 2026-09-17 — email #103445 — Coverage (Image-based) + **Subject:** $ASTS + **Type:** Image-based chart post. No extractable text. + **Price check:** 2026-09-17 — $59.27 (+0.85%) + **Afternoon update:** 2026-09-17 close — $63.51 (+7.15%). Massive green day. Bouncing hard from $58.25 low. 0.887 Fib at $55 held strong. Approaching 50 DMA at ~$66. Still above $57.30 buy level. + @@ -80,0 +92,6 @@ ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is TLI's most-covered position — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ convic + ### 2026-09-14 — email #103330 — Coverage + - **Subject:** $ASTS + - TLI view towards ASTS will not change over the next 12 months + - Not focused on share price movements + - **Price check: 2026-09-14 — $60.29** + @@ -81,0 +99,2 @@ ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is TLI's most-covered position — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ convic + + |- **2026-09-15** — **$59.39** Live price update. @@ -83 +102,49 @@ ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is TLI's most-covered position — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ convic − - **2026-09-08 (close)** — $66.26 (+6.34% from Sep 4 close). Strong bounce day. 50 DMA at $66 being challenged — if $66 flips to support, next target is 200 DMA at $81. Final buy @ $57.30 now +15.6% ITM. 5th TLI email in 5 sessions (#103095 Sep 8). + |- **2026-09-08 (close)** — $66.26 (+6.34% from Sep 4 close). Strong bounce day. 50 DMA at $66 being challenged — if $66 flips to support, next target is 200 DMA at $81. Final buy @ $57.30 now +15.6% ITM. 5th TLI email in 5 sessions (#103095 Sep 8).|- **2026-09-16** — **$58.25** Live afternoon price update. Continued drop from $59.39. Approaching 0.887 Fib at $55. Still above $57.30 buy level. FOMC day risk. + + ### 2026-09-18 — email #103497 — Coverage (Image-based) + **Subject:** $ASTS + **Type:** Image-based chart post. + **Text:** ASTS had a very good day yesterday and closed just under 50 DMA. Now challenging the 50 DMA from below. + **Price check:** 2026-09-18 — **$62.71** (-1.26%). Still below 50 DMA (~$66). Bouncing from recent lows. 200 DMA at $81 remains intermediate target. + + **Price check:** 2026-09-18 afternoon close — **$58.26** (-7.1%). Dropped sharply. Below 50 DMA. Challenging support. Email #103497 noted good session closed just under 50 DMA. + + ### 2026-09-21 — email #103592 — Coverage (Image-based) + **Subject:** $ASTS + **Type:** Image-based chart post. No extractable text. + **Price check:** 2026-09-21 pre-market — **$58.52** (+0.45% from Sep 18 close). Near unchanged. Still well below 50 DMA at $66. 0.887 Fib support at $55 remains key level. $57.30 final buy level still ITM by ~$1. + ||- **2026-09-21** — **$62.35** — Strong bounce from recent lows. Approaching 50 DMA at ~$66. Still above $57.30 buy level. 200 DMA at $81 remains intermediate target. + + ### 2026-09-22 — email #103639 — Coverage — Focus 50 DMA at $63 + **Subject:** $ASTS + **Type:** Image-based chart post with text caption. + **Text:** Again, there's very little to update on the $ASTS chart and the focus remains the 50 Day MA at $63. We want to see the price flip this level to support. + **Price check: 2026-09-22 — $61.89.** Still below 50 DMA at $63-$66. Focus on flipping $63 to support. 0.887 Fib support at $55 remains key downside level. $57.30 buy level still ITM by ~$4.50. + + ### 2026-09-23 — email #103675 — ASTS Coverage (Image-based) + **Subject:** $ASTS + **Type:** Image-based chart post. No extractable text. + **Price check:** 2026-09-23 — **$63.69** (+2.91%). Bouncing from $61.89 close. Challenging 50 DMA at ~$66. Still above $57.30 buy level. View unchanged for next 12 months. + + ||- **2026-09-24** — **$59.98** — Pre-market Sep 24 — $59.98 (Sep 23 close). Below 50 DMA at $63. Sep 23 coverage #103675 — view unchanged. Focus 50 DMA $63 resistance. + + ### 2026-09-28 — email #103861 — Coverage (Image-based) + **Subject:** $ASTS + **Type:** Image-based chart post. No extractable text. + **Price check: 2026-09-28 — Pre-market. View unchanged. Consolidation around 0.618 Fib at $61 since mid-July. + + ### 2026-09-29 — email #103908 — Coverage — Consolidation at Support + **Subject:** $ASTS + **Type:** Text-based coverage post. + **Key analysis:** + - Clear consolidation around the **0.618 Fib at $61** since mid-July — stable sideways movement + - Every pullback being bought — retail frustration creating liquidity for institutions + - **"$ASTS is in the Buy Zone, it is a buy all day long at this price and a comfortable long term hold"** + - View unchanged — consolidation shows strength + ### 2026-09-30 — email #103984 — WATCHLIST — 50 DMA 10th Test (Image-based) + **Subject:** $ASTS - WATCHLIST - + **Type:** Image-based chart post. No extractable text. Focus on 50 DMA resistance. + **Price check: 2026-10-01 — $58.86.** Below 50 DMA. Consolidation continues at 0.618 Fib zone. 10th test of 50 DMA. + + **Price check:** 2026-09-29 pre-market — $61.00. Consolidation around 0.618 Fib at $61 continues. Still above $57.30 buy level. + | **2026-10-02 (afternoon)** — **$59.12** Live afternoon price update.

Sources

email://102955
email://102837
email://103095
email://103175
email://103445
email://103497
email://100921
email://101356
email://103445
email://103639
email://103675
new section edited section · markers reflect the latest update

Summary

ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is TLI's most-covered position — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ conviction. Final buy alert executed @ $57.30 on 2026-07-31. 200 shares held in IRA, doubled since the June liquidation. The position has been tracked through multiple pullbacks to Fib support levels, all interpreted as Wave 2 corrections within a longer-term impulse count.

TLI Analysis — Key Levels & Timeline

Latest Update (Sep 4, 2026 — email #102955)

  • Wave count remains valid — price needed to test 0.887 Fib at $55 before finding support
  • Buyers stepped in at that level, price up 2% in pre-market
  • Next target: Challenge 50 Day MA at $66 from below
  • If $66 flips to support: next target is 200 Day MA at $81
  • "Zero changes needed right now"

Prior Update (Sep 2 — email #102837)

  • Price action needed test of 0.887 Fib — "done its job here"
  • Low Fib support implies weakness in this pullback, but relative to overall market weakness
  • Valid Wave 2 and impulse wave count confirmed
  • Watching for a slow drift up to 0.5 Fib at $65 over next 1-2 weeks
  • ASTS is still in the Buy Zone — great long-term hold

SPCX Sector Context (Sep 3 — email #102894)

  • $SPCX showing ascending triangle breakout at $147 (IPO Day level)
  • If SPCX breaks and holds above $147 → Bull Case → free to move to $175 and $202
  • This will help the sector and most importantly ASTS

Pre-Buy Alert (Jul 17 — email #100921)

  • "EXPECT A BUY ALERT TODAY"
  • ASTS added to Watchlist at $69, testing 0.618 Fib after a 3-wave pullback
  • Buying with "heavy conviction" — compared to adding $HIMS at $15
  • "I relish the opportunity to take advantage of the market when it is irrational"
  • Past similar conviction calls: HIMS, OSCR, UNH, ADUR, SHOP, AMD, BABA, GOOG, AMZN, SE

Wave 2 Bounce Analysis (Jul 30 — email #101356)

  • Bounce from $53 (Jul 16 low) completed in 3 waves → trend still down
  • Expected next test of 0.618 Fib at $50 (steep descending triangle apex)
  • "Downside risk now is minimum"
  • "$ASTS at $50 is a generational opportunity"
  • $SPCX collapse providing sector-wide pressure

Buy Alert (Jul 31 — email #101471)

  • Final buy alert @ $57.30 — image-based post, no extractable text
  • Executed and held in IRA

Position Context

  • 200 shares in IRA — doubled from 100 shares post-liquidation
  • TLI conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (most-covered ticker)
  • Type: Early-stage satellite-to-phone space communications
  • Risks: High volatility, pre-revenue commercial phase, sector correlation to SPCX

|- 2026-09-09 — $63.28 (-4.30%) Down -4.30%. Continues to pull back from $57.30 buy level. ||- 2026-09-11 — $60.76 (+1.40%) Bouncing from $62.42. Holding above $57.30 buy level. Challenging 50 DMA at ~$66. ||- 2026-09-10 — $62.42 (-5.60%) Another red day. 0.887 Fib support at $55 next major level. New image-based TLI post (#103175) today — no text extracted.

2026-09-17 — email #103445 — Coverage (Image-based) new

Subject: $ASTS Type: Image-based chart post. No extractable text. Price check: 2026-09-17 — $59.27 (+0.85%) Afternoon update: 2026-09-17 close — $63.51 (+7.15%). Massive green day. Bouncing hard from $58.25 low. 0.887 Fib at $55 held strong. Approaching 50 DMA at ~$66. Still above $57.30 buy level.

Gaps

  • Several emails were image-based charts with no extractable text
  • Price targets beyond $81 200 Day MA not published in available text
  • No revenue/profitability milestones from TLI analysis available

2026-09-14 — email #103330 — Coverage new

  • Subject: $ASTS
  • TLI view towards ASTS will not change over the next 12 months
  • Not focused on share price movements
  • Price check: 2026-09-14 — $60.29

Price Check edited

|- 2026-09-15 — $59.39 Live price update. |- 2026-09-11 — $59.91 Live price update. |- 2026-09-08 (close) — $66.26 (+6.34% from Sep 4 close). Strong bounce day. 50 DMA at $66 being challenged — if $66 flips to support, next target is 200 DMA at $81. Final buy @ $57.30 now +15.6% ITM. 5th TLI email in 5 sessions (#103095 Sep 8).|- 2026-09-16 — $58.25 Live afternoon price update. Continued drop from $59.39. Approaching 0.887 Fib at $55. Still above $57.30 buy level. FOMC day risk.

2026-09-18 — email #103497 — Coverage (Image-based) new

Subject: $ASTS Type: Image-based chart post. Text: ASTS had a very good day yesterday and closed just under 50 DMA. Now challenging the 50 DMA from below. Price check: 2026-09-18 — $62.71 (-1.26%). Still below 50 DMA (~$66). Bouncing from recent lows. 200 DMA at $81 remains intermediate target.

Price check: 2026-09-18 afternoon close — $58.26 (-7.1%). Dropped sharply. Below 50 DMA. Challenging support. Email #103497 noted good session closed just under 50 DMA.

2026-09-21 — email #103592 — Coverage (Image-based) new

Subject: $ASTS Type: Image-based chart post. No extractable text. Price check: 2026-09-21 pre-market — $58.52 (+0.45% from Sep 18 close). Near unchanged. Still well below 50 DMA at $66. 0.887 Fib support at $55 remains key level. $57.30 final buy level still ITM by ~$1. ||- 2026-09-21 — $62.35 — Strong bounce from recent lows. Approaching 50 DMA at ~$66. Still above $57.30 buy level. 200 DMA at $81 remains intermediate target.

2026-09-22 — email #103639 — Coverage — Focus 50 DMA at $63 new

Subject: $ASTS Type: Image-based chart post with text caption. Text: Again, there's very little to update on the $ASTS chart and the focus remains the 50 Day MA at $63. We want to see the price flip this level to support. Price check: 2026-09-22 — $61.89. Still below 50 DMA at $63-$66. Focus on flipping $63 to support. 0.887 Fib support at $55 remains key downside level. $57.30 buy level still ITM by ~$4.50.

2026-09-23 — email #103675 — ASTS Coverage (Image-based) new

Subject: $ASTS Type: Image-based chart post. No extractable text. Price check: 2026-09-23 — $63.69 (+2.91%). Bouncing from $61.89 close. Challenging 50 DMA at ~$66. Still above $57.30 buy level. View unchanged for next 12 months.

||- 2026-09-24 — $59.98 — Pre-market Sep 24 — $59.98 (Sep 23 close). Below 50 DMA at $63. Sep 23 coverage #103675 — view unchanged. Focus 50 DMA $63 resistance.

2026-09-28 — email #103861 — Coverage (Image-based) new

Subject: $ASTS Type: Image-based chart post. No extractable text. **Price check: 2026-09-28 — Pre-market. View unchanged. Consolidation around 0.618 Fib at $61 since mid-July.

2026-09-29 — email #103908 — Coverage — Consolidation at Support new

Subject: $ASTS Type: Text-based coverage post. Key analysis: - Clear consolidation around the 0.618 Fib at $61 since mid-July — stable sideways movement - Every pullback being bought — retail frustration creating liquidity for institutions - "$ASTS is in the Buy Zone, it is a buy all day long at this price and a comfortable long term hold" - View unchanged — consolidation shows strength

2026-09-30 — email #103984 — WATCHLIST — 50 DMA 10th Test (Image-based) new

Subject: $ASTS - WATCHLIST - Type: Image-based chart post. No extractable text. Focus on 50 DMA resistance. Price check: 2026-10-01 — $58.86. Below 50 DMA. Consolidation continues at 0.618 Fib zone. 10th test of 50 DMA.

Price check: 2026-09-29 pre-market — $61.00. Consolidation around 0.618 Fib at $61 continues. Still above $57.30 buy level. | 2026-10-02 (afternoon) — $59.12 Live afternoon price update.

2026-10-06 — email #104279 — WATCHLIST — Consolidating $55-$63

Subject: $ASTS - WATCHLIST - Type: Text-based WATCHLIST post with chart image. Key analysis: - $ASTS continues consolidating between tight range of $55-$63 - Range has tightened further through September — clear consolidation pattern - Tightening range suggests breakout approaching Price check: 2026-10-06 — $58.47. Mid-range. Consolidation $55-$63 tightening. Range compression suggests breakout approaching.

| 2026-10-06 (afternoon) — $62.84 Live afternoon price update.

|| 2026-10-07 (pre-market) — $63.10 Live pre-market price update.

2026-10-08 — email #104388 — Prime Position for Breakout

Subject: $ASTS Type: Text-based coverage post. Key analysis: - Focus on the strategy — ignore daily noise and swings - Price consolidating between 0.887 Fib at $55 and 50 Day MA at $63 - Longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout - $ASTS is in a prime position for a breakout - A catalyst would see the 50 Day MA at $63 broken and flipped to support - Once 50 DMA flips to support: next target is 200 Day MA at $81 Price check: 2026-10-08 — $60.65 (Oct 7 close). Consolidating $55-$63 mid-range. 50 DMA at $63 key resistance. 200 DMA $81 target.

2026-10-09 — email #104460 — ASTS Breach of 0.618 Fib Support

Subject: $ASTS Type: Text-based chart post. Key analysis: - $ASTS suffering being just $1 below its standard ABC pullback support level on the 0.618 Fib - Standard support levels on every chart — $1 below is concerning but within normal volatility - Context: macro selloff day across markets pressuring all risk assets - 0.618 Fib support is the key level to watch for reclaim Price check: 2026-10-09 — $49.11 (afternoon). Broke below 0.618 Fib support. Macro-driven selloff.