BABA — Research (2026-09-07)

2026-09-07T00:00:00Z 2026-10-09T13:00:00Z baba tli research china ecommerce
What changed in the latest update +84 −1
@@ -5 +5 @@ created: '2026-09-07T00:00:00Z' @@ -9,0 +10,6 @@ sources: + - email://103364 + - email://103494 + - email://103518 + - email://103631 + - email://103679 + - email://104036 @@ -54,0 +61,5 @@ BABA (Alibaba) is a TLI TOP 20 / WATCHLIST pick — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ conviction. 200 + + ### 2026-10-02 (afternoon) — email #104096 — Elliot Wave Count (Image-based) + **Subject:** $BABA - Elliot Wave Count - + **Type:** Image-based Elliot Wave count chart post. No extractable text. + **Price check:** 2026-10-02 afternoon — **$105.91** (-0.44% from prior close). Dropping toward the $105-$109 Buy Zone confluence. @@ -55,0 +67,2 @@ BABA (Alibaba) is a TLI TOP 20 / WATCHLIST pick — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ conviction. 200 + + |- **2026-09-15** — **$109.97** Live price update. @@ -58 +71,71 @@ BABA (Alibaba) is a TLI TOP 20 / WATCHLIST pick — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ conviction. 200 − |- **2026-09-11** — **$108.56** (-0.77%) Touched 0.5 Fib at $107 and held. Inside Buy Zone $105-$109. New TOP 20 email #103220. + |- **2026-09-11** — **$108.56** (-0.77%) Touched 0.5 Fib at $107 and held. Inside Buy Zone $105-$109. New TOP 20 email #103220. + + ### 2026-09-13 — email #103294 + **Subject:** $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - + **Price check:** 2026-09-14 — $109.3 + $BABA is in the Buy Zone Held support exactly where we were expecting to finish the week on the $109 level. On the 0.618 Fib Just above the 200 WMA Has given us a standard 3 wave pull back in an impul... + + + ### 2026-09-16 — email #103364: Strongly Considering Adding + ### Sep 15, 2026 (email #103364) — TOP 20 WATCHLIST — Looks Very Good + - $BABA looks very good at these levels. + - I am strongly considering adding to my position very soon. + - Looking for confirmed support in the **$105-$109 confluence zone**. + - Price check: 2026-09-16 — **$109.34** (within support zone). + ||- **2026-09-16** — **$108.05** Live afternoon price update. Sold 50 shares at $108.06 via Robinhood (order #103425). Price dropped below $109 support. Still in Buy Zone $105-$109 confluence. + + ### 2026-09-18 — email #103494 — TOP 20 WATCHLIST (Image-based) + **Subject:** $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - + **Type:** Image-based chart post. + **Text:** Very happy with BABA chart. Price now after testing the Fib support. + **Price check:** 2026-09-18 — **$108.54** (+0.46%). Still in Buy Zone $105-$109 confluence. Support cluster remains intact at $105-$109. + + ### 2026-09-18 — email #103518 — Chinese Stocks Update (Video Transcript) + **Subject:** Chinese Stocks Update - Video - + **Type:** Video with full transcript. Vojtech's China stocks update. + **Key points for BABA:** + - **Beautiful Wave 2 pullback** — A, B, C complete + - Five waves to the upside finished at **0.618 Fib**, just above **200 WMA** + - "You will hardly find a better confluence than that" — 200 WMA is insanely strong support + - **Textbook setup** — this is why we added just yesterday + - **Wave 3 target at 1.618 Fib: $170** — aligned with horizontal resistance + - Holding above 0.618 Fib and 200 WMA for multiple days — positive sign + - Green in pre-market — positive momentum + - Added right here on the bounce, confirmed with higher high on 1-hour chart + **Price check:** 2026-09-18 afternoon — **$113.19** (+4.28% from $108.54). Strong bounce. Wave 3 target $170. Textbook A-B-C Wave 2 complete. + + ### 2026-09-20 — email #103563 — TOP 20 (Image-based) + **Subject:** $BABA - TOP 20 - + **Type:** Image-based TOP 20 chart post. No extractable text. + **Price check:** 2026-09-20 — **$113.24** (+0.04%). Holding steady near $113. Wave 2 pullback complete. Buy Zone $105-$109. Wave 3 target $170 per video transcript. Pre-market Monday looking for continuation. + ||- **2026-09-21** — **$115.96** — Strong bounce. Now above Buy Zone $105-$109. Wave 3 target $170 per Sep 18 video transcript. Holding well above 200 WMA. + + ### 2026-09-22 — email #103631 — TOP 20 WATCHLIST — Bouncing from 0.618 Fib + **Subject:** $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - + **Type:** Image-based chart post with text caption. + **Text:** $BABA is looking to continue this bounce from the 0.618 Fib at $107 and is up 3.2% in the PM to $119 and importantly above the 50 Day MA. We are looking for the price to now continue. + **Price check: 2026-09-22 — $115.75.** Above Buy Zone $105-$109. Above 50 DMA. Wave 3 target $170. Holding well above 200 WMA. + + ### 2026-09-23 — email #103679 — TOP 20 (Image-based) + **Subject:** $BABA - TOP 20 - + **Type:** Image-based TOP 20 chart post. No extractable text. + **Price check:** 2026-09-23 — **$116.31** (+0.48%). Holding above Buy Zone $105-$109. Wave 3 target $170 still active. BABA looks very good at these levels. + + |||- **2026-09-24** — **$110.8** — Pre-market Sep 24 — $110.80 (Sep 23 close). In Buy Zone $105-$109 confluence support cluster. Sep 23 TOP 20 image post (#103679). Bouncing from 0.618 Fib $107. + + ### 2026-09-27 — email #103819 — TOP 20 WATCHLIST (Image-based) + **Subject:** $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - + **Type:** Image-based TOP 20 WATCHLIST chart post. No extractable text. + **Price check:** 2026-09-28 — **$109.74** (-0.80%). Near Buy Zone $105-$109 support cluster. Wave 3 target $170 per Sep 18 analysis. Holding near 0.618 Fib support. + + **Price check:** 2026-09-29 — **$107.81** (-0.87%). Holding near 0.5 Fib support. Watching for BABA buy zone entry. + + ### 2026-10-01 — email #104036 — Chinese Stocks Update Video (Transcript) + **Subject:** Chinese Stocks Update - Video - + **Type:** Video with full transcript by Vojtech. + **Key points for BABA:** + - Still in Wave 2; bounce happened but rejected from horizontal resistance at $120 + - Coming back to the 200-week moving average; not concerning, but would prefer a reclaim and continuation + - Likely need to go below the 200-week MA once again for market makers and big whales to accumulate more; then a reclaim and continuation to the upside + - "One more low and then we can go higher" — not ideal, but not concerning + **Price check:** 2026-10-02 — **$107.45** (-0.08%). Back near 200 WMA. Expecting one more low before reclaim. W3 target $170 intact.

Sources

email://103038
email://103176
email://103220
email://103364
email://103494
email://103518
email://103631
email://103679
email://104036
email://104398
email://104430
new section edited section · markers reflect the latest update

Summary

BABA (Alibaba) is a TLI TOP 20 / WATCHLIST pick — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ conviction. 200 shares in Robinhood, doubled from 100 post-liquidation. Price has been moving as expected into the Buy Zone after mixed earnings.

TLI Analysis (Sep 3, 2026)

Sep 7, 2026 (email #103038)

  • Share price moving as expected and controlled into the Buy Zone
  • Reported mixed earnings — headline miss, but details showed aggressive AI investment and growth
  • Aggressive AI spending is "what we expected and had no issue seeing"
  • Key confluence: 200 WMA, White 0.618 Fib, smaller green 0.618 Fib all between $105-$109
  • Price action tested this range this week
  • Buy Zone: $105-$109 confluence range
  • Long-term holding with consistent TOP 20 coverage throughout 2026
  • Part of TLIs core Chinese position alongside JD

Position Context

  • Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ — TOP 20 regular, one of 5 safe haven positions
  • 200 shares in Robinhood (doubled from 100)
  • Role: Chinese e-commerce / AI value play
  • Key level: $105-$109 confluence (200 WMA + Fib support)

Sep 11, 2026 (email #103234) — Watchlist Video — Adding After Correction

  • Vojtech video: positions to add after confirming A, B, C corrections
  • BABA is a candidate for addition alongside NVO, Silver, SE
  • Video analysis to confirm support levels before adding
  • Price check: 2026-09-11 — $109.41 (+0.76%) — Inside Buy Zone $105-$109. 0.5 Fib at $107 held.

Sep 11, 2026 (email #103220) — TOP 20 — Touched 0.5 Fib at $107 edited

  • $BABA touched the 0.5 Fib at $107, and so far this level has held
  • Looking for support to hold above $105-$109 confluence
  • Need to hold above the 0.5 Fib to maintain the buy zone setup
  • If support fails, risk to lower Fib levels
  • Current price $108.56

2026-10-02 (afternoon) — email #104096 — Elliot Wave Count (Image-based) new

Subject: $BABA - Elliot Wave Count - Type: Image-based Elliot Wave count chart post. No extractable text. Price check: 2026-10-02 afternoon — $105.91 (-0.44% from prior close). Dropping toward the $105-$109 Buy Zone confluence.

Price Check new

||- 2026-09-15 — $109.97 Live price update. ||- 2026-09-08 (close) — $112.42 (-0.72% from Sep 4 close). Still above $110 cut but tighter at +2.2% above support. $105-$109 support cluster intact per TLI #103038. ||- 2026-09-10 — $109.40 (-2.89%) Testing top of Buy Zone $105-$109. New TOP 20 image post (#103176) today. Price now inside Buy Zone at $109.40. ||- 2026-09-11 — $108.56 (-0.77%) Touched 0.5 Fib at $107 and held. Inside Buy Zone $105-$109. New TOP 20 email #103220.

2026-09-13 — email #103294 new

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - Price check: 2026-09-14 — $109.3 $BABA is in the Buy Zone Held support exactly where we were expecting to finish the week on the $109 level. On the 0.618 Fib Just above the 200 WMA Has given us a standard 3 wave pull back in an impul...

2026-09-16 — email #103364: Strongly Considering Adding new

Sep 15, 2026 (email #103364) — TOP 20 WATCHLIST — Looks Very Good new

  • $BABA looks very good at these levels.
  • I am strongly considering adding to my position very soon.
  • Looking for confirmed support in the $105-$109 confluence zone.
  • Price check: 2026-09-16 — $109.34 (within support zone). |||- 2026-09-16 — $108.05 Live afternoon price update. Sold 50 shares at $108.06 via Robinhood (order #103425). Price dropped below $109 support. Still in Buy Zone $105-$109 confluence.

2026-09-18 — email #103494 — TOP 20 WATCHLIST (Image-based) new

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - Type: Image-based chart post. Text: Very happy with BABA chart. Price now after testing the Fib support. Price check: 2026-09-18 — $108.54 (+0.46%). Still in Buy Zone $105-$109 confluence. Support cluster remains intact at $105-$109.

2026-09-18 — email #103518 — Chinese Stocks Update (Video Transcript) new

Subject: Chinese Stocks Update - Video - Type: Video with full transcript. Vojtech's China stocks update. Key points for BABA: - Beautiful Wave 2 pullback — A, B, C complete - Five waves to the upside finished at 0.618 Fib, just above 200 WMA - "You will hardly find a better confluence than that" — 200 WMA is insanely strong support - Textbook setup — this is why we added just yesterday - Wave 3 target at 1.618 Fib: $170 — aligned with horizontal resistance - Holding above 0.618 Fib and 200 WMA for multiple days — positive sign - Green in pre-market — positive momentum - Added right here on the bounce, confirmed with higher high on 1-hour chart Price check: 2026-09-18 afternoon — $113.19 (+4.28% from $108.54). Strong bounce. Wave 3 target $170. Textbook A-B-C Wave 2 complete.

2026-09-20 — email #103563 — TOP 20 (Image-based) new

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - Type: Image-based TOP 20 chart post. No extractable text. Price check: 2026-09-20 — $113.24 (+0.04%). Holding steady near $113. Wave 2 pullback complete. Buy Zone $105-$109. Wave 3 target $170 per video transcript. Pre-market Monday looking for continuation. |||- 2026-09-21 — $115.96 — Strong bounce. Now above Buy Zone $105-$109. Wave 3 target $170 per Sep 18 video transcript. Holding well above 200 WMA.

2026-09-22 — email #103631 — TOP 20 WATCHLIST — Bouncing from 0.618 Fib new

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - Type: Image-based chart post with text caption. Text: $BABA is looking to continue this bounce from the 0.618 Fib at $107 and is up 3.2% in the PM to $119 and importantly above the 50 Day MA. We are looking for the price to now continue. Price check: 2026-09-22 — $115.75. Above Buy Zone $105-$109. Above 50 DMA. Wave 3 target $170. Holding well above 200 WMA.

2026-09-23 — email #103679 — TOP 20 (Image-based) new

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - Type: Image-based TOP 20 chart post. No extractable text. Price check: 2026-09-23 — $116.31 (+0.48%). Holding above Buy Zone $105-$109. Wave 3 target $170 still active. BABA looks very good at these levels.

||||- 2026-09-24 — $110.8 — Pre-market Sep 24 — $110.80 (Sep 23 close). In Buy Zone $105-$109 confluence support cluster. Sep 23 TOP 20 image post (#103679). Bouncing from 0.618 Fib $107.

2026-09-27 — email #103819 — TOP 20 WATCHLIST (Image-based) new

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - Type: Image-based TOP 20 WATCHLIST chart post. No extractable text. Price check: 2026-09-28 — $109.74 (-0.80%). Near Buy Zone $105-$109 support cluster. Wave 3 target $170 per Sep 18 analysis. Holding near 0.618 Fib support.

Price check: 2026-09-29 — $107.81 (-0.87%). Holding near 0.5 Fib support. Watching for BABA buy zone entry.

2026-10-01 — email #104036 — Chinese Stocks Update Video (Transcript) new

Subject: Chinese Stocks Update - Video - Type: Video with full transcript by Vojtech. Key points for BABA: - Still in Wave 2; bounce happened but rejected from horizontal resistance at $120 - Coming back to the 200-week moving average; not concerning, but would prefer a reclaim and continuation - Likely need to go below the 200-week MA once again for market makers and big whales to accumulate more; then a reclaim and continuation to the upside - "One more low and then we can go higher" — not ideal, but not concerning Price check: 2026-10-02 — $107.45 (-0.08%). Back near 200 WMA. Expecting one more low before reclaim. W3 target $170 intact.

2026-10-04 — email #104163 — TOP 20 (Image-based)

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - Type: Image-based TOP 20 chart post. No extractable text. Price check: 2026-10-04 — $105.85 (prev close). Sunday TOP 20 batch post.

|| 2026-10-06 (afternoon) — $109.28 Live afternoon price update.

|| 2026-10-07 (pre-market) — $109.26 Live pre-market price update.

2026-10-08 — email #104398 — TOP 20 WATCHLIST — Holding 200 WMA, Wave 2 Complete

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - WATCHLIST - Type: Text-based TOP 20 WATCHLIST analysis.

  • $BABA has effectively been holding above its 200 WMA since September 8, which also aligns with the 0.618 Fib at $107
  • Perfect Wave 2 pullback at $107
  • If $107 continues to hold, Wave 3 is next to the 1.618 Fib at $170
  • TLI already added on support and is considering another add to take advantage of this hedge against the US market
  • Suggesting new positions for those who haven't started yet |Price check: 2026-10-08 — $105.17 (near 200 WMA/0.618 Fib support). Wave 2 support at $107. Wave 3 target $170. Buy Zone $105-$109.

2026-10-09 — email #104430 — TOP 20 — Finishing Week Above 200 WMA + 0.618 Fib

Subject: $BABA - TOP 20 - Type: Text-based TOP 20 post. Key analysis: - $BABA looks set to finish another week holding above its 200 WMA and 0.618 Fib despite two bear attempts over the last 2 weeks to break below the $107 confluence support - This should bring comfort to buyers and bulls waiting to add that there is strong support here Price check: 2026-10-09 — $107.00 (holding 200 WMA + 0.618 Fib confluence). Strong support at $107.