NI225 (NIKKEI 225) — TLI Research (2026-10-02)

Summary

NI225 (Nikkei 225) — TLI index coverage. Japan's equivalent of the Dow Jones, tracking 225 major Tokyo-listed companies (Toyota, Sony, Nintendo, SoftBank, Fast Retailing, Tokyo Electron, etc.). It is deep in Wave 5 and has moved in sync with the US market. Price action has exceeded the standard Wave 5 target at the 2.618 Fib and is reaching for its 3.618 Fib — extended/overbought. Expect a correction toward the 200 WMA and/or blue support line.

TLI Analysis — Key Levels & Timeline

2026-10-01 — email #104019 — NIKKEI 225 — Deep in Wave 5, Extended

Subject: NI225 - NIKKEI 225 Type: Text-based index coverage post.

• What is the NIKKEI 225? Japan's equivalent of the Dow Jones — tracks 225 major publicly traded Japanese companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange
• Major constituents: Toyota, Sony, Nintendo, SoftBank Group, Fast Retailing (Uniqlo), Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Advantest, Keyence
• One of the most popular positions for Japanese to buy; moved 10X since the GFC low in 2009
• Deep in Wave 5 and has moved in sync with the US market
• Price action has gone above the standard Wave 5 target at the 2.618 Fib and has been reaching for its 3.618 Fib — extended = overbought and effectively not cheap to buy
• Since Q1 price has declined but still above the 2.618 Fib and the 50 WMA — important support levels not lost yet (also valid on US market charts)
• If NI225 completes its own correction soon, expect a drop to the 200 WMA and/or the blue support line at 40,000
• NI225 spent 13 years retesting its 200 WMA until 2025 before breaking higher and going parabolic
• "You can assume that the price action WILL test its 200 WMA again, like all positions."

Position Context

• Conviction: ⭐⭐ — index / macro coverage
• Key levels: 2.618 Fib (Wave 5 standard target, holding), 3.618 Fib (extended target), 200 WMA, blue support line 40,000
• Role: Global risk / Japan market barometer; synced with US market
• Strategy: Deep in extended Wave 5; expect correction to 200 WMA / blue support

Price Check

• 2026-10-02 — NI225 index. Above 2.618 Fib, reaching 3.618. Correction to 200 WMA / blue support expected.