Randy_IRA Transition — Sell Option-Income Sleeve, Port to Defensive Income

@@ -5 +5 @@ created: '2026-10-04T23:55:00Z' @@ -7 +7 @@ sources: − - Schwab IRA statement (Randy Michels, #1169-3267) Aug 31, 2026 + - Schwab IRA statement (Randy Michels, #1169-3267) Sep 30, 2026 @@ -36 +36 @@ related: − Transition plan for the Randy_IRA (Schwab Rollover IRA #1169-3267): liquidate the ~$92k option-income / speculative sleeve (~43% of the account) and redeploy into a scaled-up defensive income portfolio. Anchor positions stay. Result: income drops from ~$27.6k/yr to ~$20.1k/yr (−27%), but NAV erosion stops — the option-income sleeve was paying 28.9% "visible yield" while losing ~18%/yr in NAV. + Transition plan for the Randy_IRA (Schwab Rollover IRA #1169-3267), **updated with exact Sep 30, 2026 statement values**: liquidate the ~$92.6k option-income / speculative sleeve (~44% of the account) and redeploy into a scaled-up defensive income portfolio. Anchor positions stay. Result: income drops from ~$30.4k/yr (Schwab EAI) to ~$19.6k/yr (−36%), but NAV erosion stops and the portfolio stops feeding a ~$19.5k/yr principal drain. @@ -38 +38 @@ Transition plan for the Randy_IRA (Schwab Rollover IRA #1169-3267): liquidate th − **Bottom line:** the account trades illusory yield for durable yield. True economic return is roughly unchanged (~11% before, ~11.8% on the redeployed sleeve after), but the portfolio stops being a slow bleed. + **Critical finding:** the account is being drawn down at ~$58k/yr (YTD distributions $43.5k through Sep) while producing ~$38.5k/yr actual income. That ~$19.5k/yr gap is principal consumption — the decay sleeve's inflated yield was masking a slow account drain. @@ -40 +40 @@ Transition plan for the Randy_IRA (Schwab Rollover IRA #1169-3267): liquidate th − ## Current State (Before) + ## Current State (Exact — Sep 30, 2026 Statement) @@ -44,18 +44,65 @@ Transition plan for the Randy_IRA (Schwab Rollover IRA #1169-3267): liquidate th − | Account value (Aug 31, 2026) | ~$213,975 | − | Estimated annual income (Schwab) | ~$27,567 | − | Stated yield | ~12.9% | − | Net total return (24 mo, Sep 2024–Aug 2026) | +11.7% despite $46k+ dividends | − | Cash sweep | ~$17.9k (Aug 31) | − − **Why the yield is misleading:** option-income ETFs (YieldMax, Roundhill weekly payers, Kurv) threw off ~$24.5k in dividends on ~$66k cost but lost ~$30k in NAV. The account collected big checks while the shares quietly shrank. − − ## The Split − − ### SELL (~$92,055 — 43% of account) − − | Group | Tickers | Combined value | − |-------|---------|----------------| − | Option-income / high-decay | YMAG, MSTY, ULTY, YETH, COIW, HOOW, TSLW, AVGW, GOOW, AAPW, AMDW, TSLP, SVOL, USOI, TSPY, SPYT, QQQI | ~$68.6k | − | Non-dividend / speculative | JD, OSCR, WYFI, SOFI, ONDS, NVO, BMNR, ASTI, ATXI, BSFC, SRXH, GMLPF | ~$23.4k | − − ### KEEP (~$103.5k — anchors) + | Account value | **$208,845.11** | + | Securities | $189,971.75 | + | Cash sweep | $18,873.36 | + | Cost basis (all positions) | $209,407.52 | + | Unrealized loss | ($19,435.77) | + | Schwab est. annual income (EAI) | $30,367 | + | Actual YTD income (9 mo) | $28,851.86 → ~$38.5k annualized | + | YTD withdrawals/distributions | $43,500 → ~$58.0k annualized | + | **YTD principal drain** | **~$19.5k/yr — income does not cover the draw** | + + | Ticker | Description | Qty | Price | Value | Cost | Unrealized | Yield | EAI | + |--------|-------------|-----|-------|-------|------|-----------|-------|-----| + | VV | Vanguard Large-Cap | 46.107 | $351.85 | $16,222.75 | $4,875.66 | +$11,347 | 1.0% | $160 | + | VTV | Vanguard Value | 67.36 | $216.08 | $14,555.15 | $7,144.43 | +$7,411 | 1.8% | $275 | + | JD | JD.com ADR | 500 | $26.60 | $13,300.00 | $17,673.75 | -$4,374 | 3.8% | $504 | + | PFFA | Virtus InfraCap Preferred | 587.894 | $19.75 | $11,610.91 | $10,591.96 | +$1,019 | 8.6% | $1,046 | + | AMZA | InfraCap MLP ETF | 222.664 | $46.73 | $10,405.09 | $4,229.25 | +$6,176 | 7.6% | $868 | + | AMDW | Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay | 100 | $102.17 | $10,217.00 | $5,325.00 | +$4,892 | 60.3% | $5,274 | + | SPYT | Defiance S&P 500 Target | 400 | $17.20 | $6,880.00 | $7,563.97 | -$684 | 20.8% | $1,433 | + | CIM+B | Chimera 10.13% PFD B | 269.655 | $23.47 | $6,328.80 | $4,662.74 | +$1,666 | 10.4% | $658 | + | YMAG | YieldMax Mag7 | 500 | $11.28 | $5,640.00 | $9,633.96 | -$3,994 | 40.4% | $2,302 | + | TSLP | Kurv Yield Premium TSLA | 400 | $14.48 | $5,792.12 | $9,400.99 | -$3,609 | 4.9% | $299 | + | QQQI | NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Inc | 100 | $55.55 | $5,555.00 | $5,051.34 | +$504 | 13.8% | $764 | + | GOOW | Roundhill GOOGL WeeklyPay | 90 | $59.33 | $5,339.70 | $4,715.10 | +$625 | 44.5% | $2,301 | + | AAPW | Roundhill AAPL WeeklyPay | 130 | $40.82 | $5,307.13 | $4,944.11 | +$363 | 29.6% | $1,494 | + | UNH | UnitedHealth Group | 15 | $367.08 | $5,506.20 | $5,032.05 | +$474 | 2.5% | $139 | + | ICAP | Infrastructure Capital Eq Inc | 200 | $27.41 | $5,482.00 | $5,761.63 | -$280 | 10.1% | $577 | + | SVOL | Simplify Volatility Premium | 285 | $16.37 | $4,665.45 | $6,067.14 | -$1,402 | 8.4% | $391 | + | NLY | Annaly Capital REIT | 264.101 | $18.89 | $4,988.87 | $5,963.05 | -$974 | 15.3% | $766 | + | HTGC | Hercules Capital BDC | 254.575 | $16.81 | $4,279.41 | $2,987.21 | +$1,292 | 11.0% | $470 | + | PDI | PIMCO Dynamic Income | 292.938 | $14.03 | $4,109.92 | $5,732.69 | -$1,623 | 18.9% | $775 | + | HOOW | Roundhill HOOD WeeklyPay | 148 | $26.90 | $3,981.20 | $9,958.93 | -$5,978 | — | — | + | USOI | UBS Crude Oil CC ETN | 82 | $44.47 | $3,646.54 | $4,612.88 | -$966 | 50.9% | $1,946 | + | ULTY | YieldMax Ultra | 125 | $25.29 | $3,161.25 | $7,519.16 | -$4,358 | 29.1% | $968 | + | AVGW | Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay | 93 | $32.09 | $2,984.37 | $4,813.68 | -$1,829 | 74.4% | $2,220 | + | PTY | PIMCO Corporate & Income | 264.942 | $11.01 | $2,917.01 | $4,638.50 | -$1,721 | 13.0% | $378 | + | TSLW | Roundhill TSLA WeeklyPay | 152 | $17.01 | $2,585.52 | $4,908.08 | -$2,323 | 96.9% | $2,695 | + | MSIF | MSC Income Fund BDC | 200 | $11.77 | $2,354.00 | $3,297.98 | -$944 | 11.2% | $264 | + | WYFI | Whitefiber | 100 | $18.01 | $1,801.00 | $2,608.00 | -$807 | — | — | + | ONDS | Ondas | 200 | $7.33 | $1,466.00 | $1,872.96 | -$407 | — | — | + | NVO | Novo Nordisk ADR | 30 | $37.91 | $1,137.30 | $1,245.00 | -$108 | 4.7% | $54 | + | SOFI | SoFi Technologies | 70 | $15.72 | $1,100.40 | $1,105.29 | -$5 | — | — | + | COIW | Roundhill COIN WeeklyPay | 100 | $8.86 | $886.00 | $4,236.00 | -$3,350 | — | — | + | YETH | Roundhill Ether CC | 100 | $9.88 | $988.10 | $4,418.31 | -$3,430 | — | — | + | BMNR | Bitmine Immersion | 20 | $26.43 | $528.60 | $988.80 | -$460 | — | — | + | MSTY | YieldMax MSTR | 40 | $16.05 | $642.00 | $5,971.95 | -$5,330 | — | — | + | ASTI | Ascent Solar | 100 | $2.52 | $252.00 | $906.00 | -$654 | — | — | + | GMLPF | Golar LNG 8.75% PFD | 243.058 | $0.26 | $63.20 | $4,256.84 | -$4,194 | — | — | + | ATXI | Avenue Therapeutics | 102 | $0.40 | $40.80 | $577.55 | -$537 | — | — | + | SRXH | SRX Global | 1 | $1.55 | $1.55 | $297.00 | -$295 | — | — | + | BSFC | Blue Star Foods | 140 | $0.0007 | $0.10 | $310.00 | -$310 | — | — | + | BHILQ | Benson Hill | 26 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $191.03 | -$191 | — | — | + + ## The Split (Exact) + + ### SELL (~$92,567 — 44% of account value) + + | Group | Positions | Value | Notes | + |-------|-----------|-------|-------| + | Option-income / high-decay | AMDW, SPYT, YMAG, TSLP, QQQI, GOOW, AAPW, SVOL, HOOW, USOI, ULTY, AVGW, TSLW, COIW, YETH, MSTY | ~$68.0k | Visible yield 24.7% aggregate but NAV-eroding | + | Non-dividend / speculative / broken | JD, OSCR, WYFI, SOFI, ONDS, NVO, BMNR, ASTI, ATXI, BSFC, SRXH, BHILQ, GMLPF | ~$24.6k | Little/no income; GMLPF −99% | + + Sell sleeve aggregate: **$92,567 value, $22,862 EAI (24.7% listed yield), −$42,752 unrealized.** + + ### KEEP (~$97,404 — anchors) @@ -65 +112 @@ Transition plan for the Randy_IRA (Schwab Rollover IRA #1169-3267): liquidate th − Keep criteria: DH-aligned income names, real holdings, lower decay. Blended yield of the keep sleeve: ~7.9%. + Keep criteria: DH-aligned income names, positive/stable unrealized, real holdings. Keep sleeve: **$97,404 value, $7,505 EAI (7.7%), +$23,316 unrealized.** @@ -67 +114 @@ Keep criteria: DH-aligned income names, real holdings, lower decay. Blended yiel − ## Redeploy: Defensive Model Scaled 3.35× + ## Redeploy: Defensive Model Scaled 3.36× @@ -69 +116 @@ Keep criteria: DH-aligned income names, real holdings, lower decay. Blended yiel − Sell proceeds (~$92k) + $10k cash → ~$102k deployed into the [defensive income model](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/model-portfolio-30k-defensive-income-variant), scaled up. + Sell proceeds ($92,567) + $10k cash → ~$102.6k deployed into the [defensive income model](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/model-portfolio-30k-defensive-income-variant), scaled 3.36×. @@ -73,24 +120,25 @@ Sell proceeds (~$92k) + $10k cash → ~$102k deployed into the [defensive income − | [KQQQ](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $13,383 | 450 | 16.5% | $2,208 | − | [PFFA](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $13,365 | 676 | 10.5% | $1,403 | − | [KCOP](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $11,694 | 506 | 15.6% | $1,824 | − | [BNDS](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $11,688 | 240 | 8.3% | $970 | − | [QVOL](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $9,981 | 98 | 12.3% | $1,228 | − | [HTGC](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $10,027 | 599 | 9.6% | $963 | − | [CSWC](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $8,350 | 355 | 9.9% | $827 | − | [AMZA](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $8,343 | 174 | 8.5% | $709 | − | [FSCO](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/fs-credit-opportunities-corp-fsco-deep-dive) | $8,365 | 1,637 | 13.7% | $1,146 | − | [ICAP](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/infracap-capital-equity-income-fund-icap-deep-dive) | $6,673 | 243 | 10.9% | $727 | − − **Redeployed sleeve: $101,868 → $12,005/yr (11.8%)** − − ## After-Transition Portfolio − − | Metric | Before | After | − |--------|--------|-------| − | Value | ~$213,975 | ~$205,300 + $10k cash | − | Annual income | ~$27,567 | ~$20,130 | − | Monthly | ~$2,297 | ~$1,678 | − | Yield | 12.9% (much of it decay) | 9.8% (durable) | − | NAV trajectory | Eroding ~18%/yr on 43% of account | Stable | − − ## Stress Comparison + | [KQQQ](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $13,442 | 452 | 16.5% | $2,218 | + | [PFFA](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $13,444 | 680 | 10.5% | $1,412 | + | [KCOP](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $11,763 | 509 | 15.6% | $1,835 | + | [BNDS](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $11,737 | 241 | 8.3% | $974 | + | [QVOL](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $10,083 | 99 | 12.3% | $1,240 | + | [HTGC](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $10,077 | 602 | 9.6% | $967 | + | [CSWC](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $8,397 | 357 | 9.9% | $831 | + | [AMZA](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/dividend-hunter-portfolio) | $8,391 | 175 | 8.5% | $713 | + | [FSCO](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/fs-credit-opportunities-corp-fsco-deep-dive) | $8,406 | 1,645 | 13.7% | $1,152 | + | [ICAP](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/infracap-capital-equity-income-fund-icap-deep-dive) | $6,700 | 244 | 10.9% | $730 | + + **Redeployed sleeve: $102,440 → $12,073/yr (11.8%)** + + ## After-Transition Portfolio (Exact) + + | Metric | Before (Sep 30) | After | + |--------|-----------------|-------| + | Value | $208,845 | ~$208,717 (keep $97.4k + new $102.4k + ~$8.9k cash) | + | Annual income (EAI) | ~$30,367 | ~$19,578 | + | Monthly | ~$2,531 | ~$1,631 | + | Yield | 14.5% (much of it decay) | 9.4% (durable) | + | NAV trajectory | Eroding; −$19.4k unrealized | Stable | + | Principal drain | −$19.5k/yr (draw > income) | −$19.5k/yr but income shortfall shrinks from $19.5k to ~$10.8k | + + ## Stress Comparison (Before vs After) @@ -100,3 +148,3 @@ Sell proceeds (~$92k) + $10k cash → ~$102k deployed into the [defensive income − | Moderate correction | ~$179.7k | **~$190.8k** | ~$23.2k | ~$19.7k | − | Bear market | ~$149.8k | **~$168.0k** | ~$19.3k | ~$18.4k | − | Credit stress | ~$149.8k | **~$172.5k** | ~$19.3k | ~$16.8k | + | Moderate correction | ~$175.4k | **~$186.6k** | ~$25.7k | ~$19.1k | + | Bear market | ~$146.2k | **~$164.3k** | ~$21.3k | ~$17.9k | + | Credit stress | ~$146.2k | **~$168.4k** | ~$21.3k | ~$16.3k | @@ -104 +152 @@ Sell proceeds (~$92k) + $10k cash → ~$102k deployed into the [defensive income − After-transition portfolio holds up ~$18-23k better in a bear market and loses far less real income in credit stress. + The after-port holds up ~$11–22k better in stress because the sell sleeve concentrated the crash risk (option-income funds behave like high-beta equity with credit exposure). @@ -110,5 +158,7 @@ After-transition portfolio holds up ~$18-23k better in a bear market and loses f − | Principal | ~$92,055 | ~$101,868 | − | Visible yield | 28.9% ($26.6k) | 11.8% ($12.0k) | − | Est. annual NAV erosion | −18% (−$16.6k) | ~0% | − | **True economic return** | **+10.9%** | **+11.8%** | − | 3-yr principal (no reinvest) | ~$50.8k (−45%) | ~$101.9k (stable) | + | Principal | $92,567 | $102,440 | + | Listed yield (EAI) | 24.7% ($22.9k) | 11.8% ($12.1k) | + | Est. annual NAV erosion | −15–18% | ~0% | + | **True economic return** | **~+7–10%** | **~+11.8%** | + | 3-yr principal (no reinvest) | ~$51–57k (−40%+) | ~$102k (stable) | + + The option-income sleeve's check size was its own destruction: high "yield" paid from NAV while the account also faced $43.5k of YTD withdrawals. @@ -116 +166 @@ After-transition portfolio holds up ~$18-23k better in a bear market and loses f − The option-income sleeve's check size was its own destruction: high "yield" paid from NAV. The defensive redeploy matches the real return with stable principal. + ## Medical-Expense Consideration — THE KEY ISSUE @@ -118 +168 @@ The option-income sleeve's check size was its own destruction: high "yield" paid − ## Medical-Expense Consideration + **The account is being drawn at ~$58k/yr while producing ~$38.5k/yr — a ~$19.5k/yr principal drain.** After the transition the income drops to ~$19.6k/yr, which widens the gap against the current draw rate. This is the real decision point: @@ -120 +170,2 @@ The option-income sleeve's check size was its own destruction: high "yield" paid − The owner needs the payments for medical expenses. The after-port delivers ~$1,678/mo of durable income — roughly stable from where the account ends up after the decay sleeve is gone, and it won't shrink as NAV erodes. If more monthly cash is needed, the model can be tilted toward the higher-yield covered-call names (KQQQ/KCOP/QVOL) at the cost of some stability — see the [income vs defensive tradeoff](https://hub.millertech.us/Ga9lnm2lVyEOicZErWjMpKrpr5gJOF1e/kb/trading/model-portfolio-30k-defensive-income-variant). + - If medical draws stay ~$4,800/mo, neither the current portfolio nor the defensive port covers them; the account will deplete. **A draw of ~$1,600–1,800/mo is sustainable**; ~$4,800/mo needs a different plan (sell more, annuitize, or accept depletion). + - The transition stops the decay-sleeve NAV bleed, so the sustainable draw rate on this account is actually **higher after the transition** than before (income is durable instead of evaporating). @@ -124,5 +175,5 @@ The owner needs the payments for medical expenses. The after-port delivers ~$1,6 − - Share counts and position values are reconstructed from the Aug 31, 2026 statement analysis — verify against the live account before executing − - Live-price check (Oct 4, 2026) on ~40 tickers: account value roughly tracked the statement, ±$5k − - No tax impact modeled: this is an IRA (Rollover), so liquidation is tax-free − - Option-income names USOI and QQQI are in the sell list even though USOI appears in the DH portfolio — they stay only as a small trade sleeve at most, not core − - Income estimates use yields from the DH portfolio page / statements; actual distributions vary monthly for option-income ETFs + - **Values are exact from the Sep 30, 2026 Schwab statement** — this replaces all earlier estimates + - No tax impact modeled: Rollover IRA → liquidation is tax-free + - Income after-transition uses DH portfolio page yields at Oct 4 prices; actuals vary monthly + - Option-income names USOI and QQQI are sell-list even though USOI is a DH trade-sleeve name — they stay only as a small sleeve at most, not core + - The $58k/yr draw rate (from $43.5k YTD distributions) needs an explicit owner decision — the portfolio alone can't sustain it