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Summary
NFLX (Netflix) is a TLI WATCHLIST ticker. Bounced strongly from $64 to $83.50 completing Wave 1. Pulling back for Wave 2 entry opportunity. Has recaptured its 200 WMA.
TLI Analysis — Key Levels & Timeline
Latest Update (Sep 9, 2026 — email #103141)
- Higher low forming — attempting to confirm reversal
- Testing 0.38 Fib at $76 for support — 50 Day MA at $75.42 just below
- Only concern: we really only have Wave A — Wave 2 typically comes in three waves to 0.5 or 0.618 Fib
- Support around 50 DMA → low risk buy opportunity — remember to scale in
- Upside targets:
- Higher high above Wave 1 at $84
- 200 Day MA at $86
- Wave 3 target at 1.618 Fib: $104
Sep 4, 2026 — email #102980
- Pulled back 3-4%, indicating a trend change
- Wave 1 may be complete (bounced from $64 to $83.50 — strong bounce)
- Pullback for Wave 2 is standard and expected
- Waiting for confirmation of the pullback structure before next entry
Prior: Wave 1 Analysis (Earlier — email #102792)
- Consolidating for 10 days, but believes one more leg up in Wave 1 before completion
- Expected Wave 1 target: 200 Day MA around $87
- After Wave 1 completion, expect 3-wave pullback to Wave 2 support
- Wave 2 support confluences: 0.5 Fib and 0.618 Fib range between $73-$76
- 50 Day MA cuts through this range
Recaptured 200 WMA (Earlier — email #101316)
- Recaptured the 200 WMA and blue support line
- Small flush down post-earnings below 200 WMA was addressed
- Recapturing this historical MA is a sign of strength
- Signal to add once price converts 200 WMA to support
- Blue line + 200 WMA = trigger for Bull Case
TLI Analysis
Sep 9, 2026 (email #103141) — Higher Low Attempt at $76
- Price now testing 0.38 Fib at $76 for support
- Attempting to form a higher low — key reversal signal
- Needs to confirm reversal with higher low pattern
Position Context
- Conviction: ⭐⭐ — WATCHLIST, regular but not frequent coverage
- Role: Streaming leader, potential Wave 2 entry setup
- Key levels: Support $73-$76, resistance $87 (200 DMA)
Gaps edited
|- No specific entry or price targets published in available text
|- Post-earnings flush details not available (image-based)
Price Check new
|- 2026-09-10 — $76.03 (-0.96%) Testing 0.38 Fib support at $76. 50 DMA at $75.42 just below. New image post (#103182) today.
2026-09-14 — email #103321 new
Subject: $NFLX
Price check: 2026-09-14 — $76.0
$NFLX is also looking pretty strong in this morning's PM, while a lot of the market is struggling. But we can see it's clear what's happening here $NFLX is attempting to form a higher low for Waves 1 ...
2026-09-17 — email #103446 — Coverage (Image-based) new
Subject: $NFLX
Type: Image-based chart post. No extractable text.
Price check: 2026-09-17 — $75.74 (-0.88%)
2026-09-18 — email #103498 — WATCHLIST (Image-based) new
Subject: $NFLX - WATCHLIST -
Type: Image-based chart post.
Text: NFLX is now officially on the buy list radar. Strong bounce from July earnings through September.
Price check: 2026-09-18 — $75.31 (-0.57%). Buy list radar activated. Watching for higher low formation.
Price check: 2026-09-18 afternoon — $75.89. Stable near $75 support. Buy list radar active. Watching for higher low formation. Previous support at $73-$76 range.
2026-09-21 — email #103591 — Coverage (Image-based) new
Subject: $NFLX
Type: Image-based chart post. No extractable text.
Price check: 2026-09-21 pre-market — $NFLX coverage image received Monday morning. Buy list radar active. Watching for higher low formation.
2026-09-22 — email #103634 — Coverage — Pullback Overreaction, Buy Zone Tested new
Subject: $NFLX
Type: Image-based chart post with text caption.
Text: I called said last week the pullback was an overreaction... but regardless, the price has now tested the blue Bull Case line and our Buy Zone and is looking...
Price check: 2026-09-22 — $73.36. Tested blue Bull Case line and Buy Zone. Pullback called as overreaction. Watching for higher low formation. Previous support range $73-$76. Wave 3 target $104.
2026-10-01 — email #104015 — Trapped Below 200 WMA, Testing 0.78 Fib $69 new
Subject: $NFLX
Type: Text-based coverage post.
- $NFLX remains trapped below the 200 WMA and continues to test the 0.78 Fib at $69 for support
- Focus right now is on holding above the 0.78 Fib; if the price fails to hold here, downside risk = the lows from July at $65
- $NFLX bulls really have to step up and defend $69; then want to see a higher high above $83 to confirm the pullback is complete
- Buying $NFLX below the 200 WMA is very attractive for those happy to hold long term
Price check: 2026-10-02 — $67.85 (-2.49%). Below 0.78 Fib $69. Bulls must defend $69; downside July lows $65.
2026-10-05 — email #104248 — Video — Full Structure Reset, "Incredible Buy Zone"
Subject: $NFLX - Video -
Type: Video post with transcript by Vojtech.
- Not a nice view. TLI had been very bullish, expecting to be in cycle Wave 5 by this time
- But the price broke down below the 200-week moving average and below the previous all-time high
- Previously TLI had already dipped below the Wave 1 top once and chose to consider it valid (quick sweep of liquidity) because the company's moat is strong
- Coming below this level again makes it clear this is not Wave 4. Likely in another Wave 1 and 2 (one-two, one-two) = a structure reset
- Not necessarily bearish — arguably a greater opportunity to buy even cheaper, but downside remains
- Downside targets / confluence: 0.618 Fib is the obvious target; aligns beautifully with the 0.65 Fib (beautiful confluence). If that breaks, the 0.786 Fib is the next downside target (would allow a 1-2-3-4-5 count lower)
- Vojtech does not lean toward the 0.786 scenario — would require something to really break for a market leader, but acknowledges market leaders (NVO, ADBE, LVMUY) have revisited their 200-month MAs recently, so not impossible
- Current support level = labeled a "pretty tight but pretty attractive" buy zone where he'd add; if lost, watch for 0.786
- Long-term upside: measuring the move → Wave 3 target at an incredible $255 (5-10 year time frame)
|Price check: 2026-10-05 — TLI video coverage. Below 200 WMA. Watch current support (0.618/0.65 confluence) as buy zone; 0.786 in play if lost. Long-term W3 target $255.
2026-10-09 — email #104431 — WATCHLIST — 3-Wave Pullback Held 0.78 Fib $67, Bounced to $70
Subject: $NFLX - WATCHLIST -
Type: Text-based WATCHLIST post.
Key analysis:
- $NFLX has pulled back in 3 waves and held support on the 0.78 Fib at $67
- Bounced on support and returned to $70, reaching for the 0.618 Fib at $72
- 200 WMA just above at $73.50 — added confluence
- Seeing higher highs and higher lows while oversold below 200 WMA
- Buyers happy to accumulate here
Price check: 2026-10-09 — pre-market. Held 0.78 Fib $67, bounced to $70. 200 WMA $73.50 above 0.618 Fib $72.